Chart from Smarkets A week after the American election and four days after the results showed Biden on his way to victory and so far President Trump has failed to concede. It has very much gone the other way with all leading members of the Trump administration and prominent Republicans backing his notion that that there could have been voter fraud and he wasn’t going to stand aside. Biden meanwhile is very much acting as the President elect making an…
Map Wikipedia The area highlighted in the map above is the state of Georgia which over the next seven weeks will see a political battle almost on the scale of the fight between Biden and trump for the Presidency. For although Joe Biden won the White House Race last Tuesday his party failed to take control of the Senate and without that he is very much limited in what he can do. For starters Biden wants to be able to…
“The first thing we do, let’s kill all the lawyers.” A cheer from half the audience at that and its response (“that I mean to do”); a groan from the other half followed. Whoever would have thought a Barbican audience would consist of lawyers and their clients! Would society be better with fewer laws and lawyers? Lawyers’ concerns at recent Ministerial comments led to a letter signed by 800 of them – to the Guardian, neatly reinforcing the “lefty lawyers” caricature….
As the war of words goes on and Trump and his lackeys go on the offensive over voter fraud claims Fox News pulls the plug. This could be significant. Trump really needs Fox and this makes current effort even harder.
The above Tweet from the usually reliable Axios suggests to me at least that Trump is working on a way to acknowledge the current outcome but come out of it with his head held high and his base fired up. His “concession” speech would actually be a declaration that he would be seeking the 2024 nomination. It would also cement his place during the next four years as akin to what doesn’t exist in US politics – a sort of…
Given the scale of betting activity on the American election quite a few punters have been in contact asking when bets are going to be settled. The timing very much depends on the type of bet and those linked to the number of Electoral College Votes are going to have to wait until recounts, like the one for Georgia have been completed. Bets linked to overall vote shares will be settled once all the counting has been complete and there…
Lots of analysis at the moment about the US election following the victory of Joe Biden and defeat of Donald Trump. One of the features of US elections which has been critical this year is that there is a much higher level of participation in US elections by women over men. There are more women than men in the US, they are more likely to be registered and have a greater propensity to actually vote. Thus of those who took…
There’s been a lot going on recently, what with the resurgence of Covid-19, the new lockdown, the US elections and French terror attacks. What else has been going on that might be important but which might have escaped your attention? Lots, obviously. Here are three things that deserve more attention than they’re getting. 1 – Armenia has lost control of parts of Nagorno-Karabakh Armenia and Azerbaijan have vied for control of Nagorno-Karabakh (an enclave within Azerbaijan that is ethnically majority…