In 2019 the Conservatives won an 80 seat majority with an 11.5% popular vote lead. Since then their polling lead has floated between 20% to around 0%. Right now it is mid to high single digits, though polls are a bit all over the place at the moment. They will probably win a majority again at the next election. That shouldn’t be a controversial statement, yet the betting markets will give you up to 2/1 on this outcome. Why? The…
Moving from a 56-44 split in favour of independence to a 50-50 one is NOT a 12% swing I do not think that I am generally very pedantic but there is one issue that really gets under my skin and that is the incorrect use of the term “swing”. A classic came yesterday in the Sunday Times when a 56-44 Scottish polling lead for independence moved to a 50-50 split. As can be seen in the panel above the Sunday…
It’s the only system that genuinely makes valid votes worthless The only exciting thing about the London mayoral election result this year is likely to be whether Sadiq Khan wins on the first vote or is forced into second preferences. He will not be close by Shaun Bailey or any of the many other candidates but may miss out on the 50% share needed to secure a first-preference win. That he might need a second round at all is because…
Basically for what appears to be a fee £75 the former UKIP and Brexit Party leader will record a special personalised video which people can give as birthday presents and the like. Click on here see to see what it looks and sounds like. This is certainly original and looks as though it will be a good way of raising funds from his most committed supporters. In his promotional Tweet Farage is right – this is a great way of…
Only a quarter of voters would vote for a Royal This YouGov polling really did catch my attention, just 7% of the country would vote for The Queen as head of state, that shakes out at roughly 1% for every decade she’s been on the throne. I wonder if this is the result of the Brexit campaign. Taking back control from our unelected rulers has never been more popular. I mean today we wouldn’t accept hereditary doctors or Prime Ministers,…
Voting systems matter when it comes to betting Earlier on this week Priti Patel made the astonishing announcement that the 2011 AV referendum result wasn’t just a rejection of AV but all transferable voting systems which is quite the radical interpretation of the referendum result given there are other transferable voting systems apart from AV which were not on the 2011 referendum ballot paper. If Patel and the Tory party wish to be consistent and avoid accusations of hypocrisy then…
From David Cowling – former head BBC political research Because the 2020 local elections were postponed due to the pandemic, this May will witness elections for incumbent candidates who were, overwhelmingly, last elected in either 2016 or 2017. Both national opinion polls and projections of national vote shares at the time suggest two very different benchmarks against which to measure the 2021 results. Those elections taking place with a 2016 benchmark are: the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Senned, London Mayor, Greater…
The 2010s should tell us that radicalism and inexperience is no bar Joe Biden is 5/2 against to be the Democrats’ nominee for president in 2024. There has surely never been such long odds for a first-term elected president. Frankly, I think that’s huge value despite his age. Political leaders do not give up lightly and only got where they are because of tenacity and a considerable belief in themselves. But let’s suppose that he doesn’t stand (not least because…