The government is right to junk Supplementary Vote – it’s the worst of all worlds

The government is right to junk Supplementary Vote – it’s the worst of all worlds

It’s the only system that genuinely makes valid votes worthless The only exciting thing about the London mayoral election result this year is likely to be whether Sadiq Khan wins on the first vote or is forced into second preferences. He will not be close by Shaun Bailey or any of the many other candidates but may miss out on the 50% share needed to secure a first-preference win. That he might need a second round at all is because…

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After all these months since he ceased to be an MEP Farage has found a new role

After all these months since he ceased to be an MEP Farage has found a new role

Basically for what appears to be a fee £75 the former UKIP and Brexit Party leader will record a special personalised video which people can give as birthday presents and the like. Click on here see to see what it looks and sounds like. This is certainly original and looks as though it will be a good way of raising funds from his most committed supporters. In his promotional Tweet Farage is right – this is a great way of…

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Just 7% would vote for The Queen to be our Head of State

Just 7% would vote for The Queen to be our Head of State

Only a quarter of voters would vote for a Royal This YouGov polling really did catch my attention, just 7% of the country would vote for The Queen as head of state, that shakes out at roughly 1% for every decade she’s been on the throne. I wonder if this is the result of the Brexit campaign. Taking back control from our unelected rulers has never been more popular. I mean today we wouldn’t accept hereditary doctors or Prime Ministers,…

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Priti Patel may just have changed the Tory leadership rules and this has major betting implications

Priti Patel may just have changed the Tory leadership rules and this has major betting implications

Voting systems matter when it comes to betting Earlier on this week Priti Patel made the astonishing announcement that the 2011 AV referendum result wasn’t just a rejection of AV but all transferable voting systems which is quite the radical interpretation of the referendum result given there are other transferable voting systems apart from AV which were not on the 2011 referendum ballot paper. If Patel and the Tory party wish to be consistent and avoid accusations of hypocrisy then…

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May 2021 election benchmarks

May 2021 election benchmarks

From David Cowling – former head BBC political research Because the 2020 local elections were postponed due to the pandemic, this May will witness elections for incumbent candidates who were, overwhelmingly, last elected in either 2016 or 2017. Both national opinion polls and projections of national vote shares at the time suggest two very different benchmarks against which to measure the 2021 results. Those elections taking place with a 2016 benchmark are: the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Senned, London Mayor, Greater…

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AOC-2024? Yes, the Democrats really could go from their oldest nominee to their youngest

AOC-2024? Yes, the Democrats really could go from their oldest nominee to their youngest

The 2010s should tell us that radicalism and inexperience is no bar Joe Biden is 5/2 against to be the Democrats’ nominee for president in 2024. There has surely never been such long odds for a first-term elected president. Frankly, I think that’s huge value despite his age. Political leaders do not give up lightly and only got where they are because of tenacity and a considerable belief in themselves. But let’s suppose that he doesn’t stand (not least because…

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In the betting Sturgeon’s chances of being First Minister at the end of the year tighten to 9/4

In the betting Sturgeon’s chances of being First Minister at the end of the year tighten to 9/4

This is how The Scotsman is reporting the latest moves in Edinburgh: The First Minister is set to battle for the survival of her political career next week after the Scottish Conservatives announced plans to push for a no-confidence vote in the SNP leader on Wednesday. Douglas Ross’ party said that will give Ms Sturgeon a “last chance to resign” on Tuesday for allegedly misleading Parliament. If she does not do so, the party will proceed with a vote of…

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Rishi still favourite to be next PM though not as strong a one as he was

Rishi still favourite to be next PM though not as strong a one as he was

The biggest current political betting market that I have an interest (I’ve £20 on Sunak at 250/1) is who is going to succeed Johnson as prime minister. The Betdata.io chart above shows what has happened on Betfair over the past 12-month and ask can be seen Keir starmer was favourite for a period but most of the time it is the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rishi Sunak, who has been in the top slot. So much in this market depends…

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