Football fans appear markedly more enthusiastic about Boris and Keir than the public at large

Football fans appear markedly more enthusiastic about Boris and Keir than the public at large

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One of the reasons why Opinium is my favourite poster is because of the extensive way the firm presents its data and allows you to look at responses to one question and how it affected other responses. Last week’s big news was about the super league leading to Opinium including questions about this in its latest poll including one that tested the sample’s interest in football. So because of the extensiveness of the dataset, we can do comparisons on the…

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Why I am amongst those sceptical about Tory chances in Hartlepool

Why I am amongst those sceptical about Tory chances in Hartlepool

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GE2015 showed that betting based on single seat polls is a recipe to lose money At the end of last week I drove through the Hartlepool constituency on the way back home from my holiday in North Northumberland in the hope of seeing something that I could snap to illustrate the by-election. Alas nothing was obvious on the A19 but maybe I was concentrating on the traffic! Like David Herdson on Saturday I am far from convinced that the Tories…

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A freebie for Sir Keir from a Tory

A freebie for Sir Keir from a Tory

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 Harold Wilson said in 1964, “The Labour party is a moral crusade or it is nothing.” By 2015 the focus was rather on what was moral about a crusade: which in many ways epitomises Labour’s problems all too neatly. In a recent thread, it was suggested that Labour needed some policies to attract attention and get voters motivated once again. My response was a Workers Charter. I suggested the following policies. Guaranteed minimum hours in every contract of employment. A…

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Only in the Midlands and Wales do more people think Johnson’s “clean and honest” than corrupt

Only in the Midlands and Wales do more people think Johnson’s “clean and honest” than corrupt

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In spite of it all Opinium has the CON lead up 2 to 11% The most striking question in tonight’s Opinium poll for the Observer is the one above testing on how many perceive Johnson to be corrupt following the events of recent weeks. It really says something about things at the moment that such a question is included in a major poll. I am sure that this sort of polling question has been asked before but I cannot recall…

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Hartlepool: Labour still feels value in the Hartlepool betting

Hartlepool: Labour still feels value in the Hartlepool betting

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History suggests it is very hard for governments to gain by-elections Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer were both campaigning in Hartlepool yesterday. That may be because they both believe the by-election there to be very close or it may be that they wish to give that impression. It really shouldn’t be close. Governments hardly ever gain by-elections from the main opposition and when they do, there are usually exceptional circumstances. Tony Blair, despite his extraordinary poll leads through most of…

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American polls may now need to fundamentally change their poll weightings

American polls may now need to fundamentally change their poll weightings

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Correlation does equal causation? I’m fascinated by this analysis, perhaps American pollsters should change their weightings and ditch weighting polls by age and educational attainment and use things like (poor) health condition and alcohol use. With the structure of the American health system poorer people cannot get the heath coverage and assistance they need perhaps this is why the GOP tried to gut and sabotage the Affordable Care Act? It was an attempt to beget more GOP voters. This is…

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A guest thread on Scottish independence and electoral reform

A guest thread on Scottish independence and electoral reform

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At the risk of sounding like Sion Simon soon there will be an election, in which Scottish nationalists will increase their majority.  The Scottish Conservative Party are campaigning on the principle that the last referendum should be a ‘once in a generation’ vote and to vote for the SCON Party to “stop indyref2”. If a majority in Scotland do vote for the Tories (or other unionist parties) then that is the end of the matter – feel free to ignore…

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Some important breaking news for those betting on the Mayor of London

Some important breaking news for those betting on the Mayor of London

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When I heard this news I stopped what I was doing and decided to take a moment to re-evaluate my entire Mayor of London betting position because of this momentous news. After period of reflection I’ve decided to keep on betting that Laurence Fox will not win the Mayor of London contest in a fortnight. This news may actually have some genuine long term implications, I wonder if this the beginning of Laurence Fox coming under aegis of Nigel Farage’s…

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