Tracking Covid

Tracking Covid

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Will the voters think the vaccine rollout doesn’t forgive the high death toll beforehand? I find the this polling very interesting because recent experiences over the last decade has shown leadership ratings and supplementaries are a better predictor of electoral outcomes than headline voting intention figures, which is why I look at the supplementaries with a fine-tooth comb. Opinium, in their poll published last night, found something similar to the YouGov findings above. The public think the government has continued…

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Jupiter in eclipse? Macron looks a very weak odds-on favourite

Jupiter in eclipse? Macron looks a very weak odds-on favourite

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Time to look ahead to 2022 No incumbent French president has won re-election since the terms were reduced from seven years to five. Granted, there are not many examples – two – on which to base what might appear to be if not a rule of thumb then certainly a trend. But nor is the Élysée exactly a secure base from which to a presidential campaign (compare here with the American presidency). So why is Emmanuel Macron such short odds…

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In spite of the latest EU dealings those who think Brexit was wrong still have clear 8% lead with YouGov

In spite of the latest EU dealings those who think Brexit was wrong still have clear 8% lead with YouGov

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Even though the UK is now fully out of the EU there’s been almost no movement in YouGov’s Brexit tracker which has been asked at least twice a month since 2016. The latest figures are in the chart above and as can be seen those saying Brexit was right still trail those saying it was wrong by 8%. Until the row over the AZC vaccine the UK’s exit at the start of this month has been totally overshadowed by COVID…

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More people will die if ministers respond to populist campaigns like this

More people will die if ministers respond to populist campaigns like this

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The Ipsos poll on which this is based The issue here who is going to be next in the vaccination queue once categories 1-4 have been completed which should be by the middle of February. The current plan is to go to group five which is people in their 60s NOT teachers or other groups for which the media can whip up special pleading. The priority order has been based on ensuring that most vulnerable get their jabs first. Yet…

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The big vaccine divide: The UK’s approach is politician led while the EU’s is run by its officers

The big vaccine divide: The UK’s approach is politician led while the EU’s is run by its officers

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The above pic of Johnson highlights the very different way in which the EU and the UK is approaching the effort to vaccinate those most at risk from COVID. For their is no reason why Boris should be there except to get the media coverage. It is hard to imagine a senor EU official arranging a media event where he/she could be pictured watching vaccination in action. Their job is to follow the rules that exist and those in charge…

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The vaccine wars shouldn’t surprise us given how COVID has blighted life around the world

The vaccine wars shouldn’t surprise us given how COVID has blighted life around the world

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The increasingly bitter political wrangling going on about vaccines reminds me of the plot in what’s regarded as the greatest movie ever made “The Third Man”. This it will be recalled was based on the Graham Green novel and was set in post-war Vienna. It was about the murder of a racketeer who was exploiting the shortage of penicillin supplies of which could lead to people living rather than dying. Given that the prospect of being vaccinated could ensure that…

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