politicalbetting.com

How can you keep the rest of us on strict lockdown? I don’t usually agree with Baker but he is clearly right here. Making any exemption because it is politically convenient is going to undermine efforts to get support for it across the community. Until now we have all be under the COVID regime and mostly this has been followed. So what if this means that Wembley loses the European final – either you have controls in place or you…

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It was inevitable given how little attention they were getting before their shock victory by some margin in C&A that the LDs were going to see something of a recovery and that is what has happened. But overall the polls are showing very different pictures of the where the Tories stand in relation to LAB. Deltapoll has the gap at 6% while Savanta puts it at 14% which would produce very different general election outcomes if that is how the…

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But punters got Chesham and Amersham totally wrong The chart shows the latest betting on next week’s by-election in Batley & Spen where Labour is pinning its hopes on Jo Cox’s sister to see them home in what could be a tricky contest. This isn’t helped by ex LAB and then Respect MP, George Galloway standing on an anti-Starmer platform. I’m often asked if betting markets are predictive and last Thursday underlined the fact that they can get it terribly…

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What has been quite remarkable is how in the space of a week the whole way we are looking at the next general election has been transformed. Last Tuesday morning nobody really doubted that the Tories would retain C&A with a clear majority and few were ready to voice doubts about BoJo’s ability to lead his party to another majority at the next election. Now after C&A things look very different and experts like John Curtice are talking about the…

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What’s the point of being a vaccination “world beater” if strict controls remain? l

The LDs almost never fail when they start in 2nd place behind the Tory In the aftermath of the Chesham by-election Peter Fleet has issued a series of Tweets expressing his bitterness about the outcome and Lib Dem tactics. Fair enough – I tried to run for parliament once and I know how failure affected me. Fleet would have been less disappointed if he had checked his electoral history before putting himself forward for the by-election. If he had done…

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One of the common themes following the Chesham by-election is that 40% of those in the constituency are graduates – a proportion that is markedly higher than in either Hartlepool (CON GAIN) and Batley & Spen (Election July 1). This was a key part of the Curtice post election analysis which was a big reason why it was vulnerable to the LDs. It was at the 2016 referendum the importance of the university/non university split was highlighted and it is…

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The value by-election bet, surely, is LAB at 26% not CON at 73% With the by-election taking place a week on Thursday any data about what happened in recent elections in the seat is well worth examining and arguably could be a better indicator than the one 500 sample poll that we have seen, The above table has been compiled by David Cowling, the BBC’s former head of political research, who painstakingly went through the detailed results of each council…

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