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Even CON voters say he should go There is no way of interpreting this as being anything other than bad news for the HealthSec who has played a key role in making the COVID regulations which he himself did not follow. The CON voters’ split above is particularly significant. In the betting it is currently as I write on Smarkets it is a 99% chance that Hancock will go. Other polls are expected this evening and this post will be…

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The above chart if from the Smarkets betting exchange and as can be seen there is not a lot of liquidity at the moment though you can see this one gathering momentum with a fair amount of switching from one to the other. I just wonder what the Sunday papers might have in store for the man who was always ready to take on a harsh line on those who didn’t follow the lockdown rules over which he has had…

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I think the Teleggraph report is spot on. Everything depends on the public reaction and how long this domiates the headlines. To my mind this is worse than with Dom Cummings and his Barnard Castle trip last year because of the seniority of Hancock and his crucial role in handling the pandemic. Quite simply in Hancock’s eyes the rules were for others to follow not him. We’ve all had to restrict our lives for fifteen months and Hancock was not…

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Should we expect the same over Hancock? Last year the news of Dom’s lockdown breaking trip to Barnard Castle had a huge impact on the CON lead in the voting intention polls. Redfield & Wilson dropped from a 19% CON lead at the start of May to a 2% one. Opinium went from 18% to 5% while with YouGov it was 20% at the start of the month to 5%. Whether all that can be atributed to the Cummings revelations…

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If he is able to run then he could get it We’ve hardly referred to events in the US following the January 6th Insurrection and the inauguration of Joe Biden. From the perspective of this side of the pond things seem a lot more peaceful and without the regular stream of Tweets from the Oval Office life is getting back to some sort of normality. Biden has a very different style although he has been struggling to get big measures…

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With the less than a week to go LAB tumbles to a 22% chance in the Batley and Spen betting on a day that has seen Russia Today presenter Galloway getting increasing attention. What we do know is that Galloway is a superb self-publicist. He makes news. The big question is how effective he will be in getting LAB switchers in next week’s by-election. Paul Mason’s Tweet shows some of the efforts being made to discredit Galloway in the eyes…

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One of the things that has been impressive during the whole COVID period is how well Ipsos MORI has worked tracking attitudes and seeking to get a sense of how people have been coping. The latest round of data has been published today and the top two charts give the results with the changes on November when a similar round of questions was asked. Both sets of results seek big changes and the one that worries me is the last…

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Could the current Russia/RN crisis hurt his campaign? Next by-election up is, of course, Batley & Spen on Thursday next week and the main interest is on ex-LAB then ex-RESPECT MP, George Galloway who is a presenter on Russia Today. The Tories are odds on favourite to take the seat but a lot of interest is on Galloway who is never far from controversy and is now third favourite at 12/1 with Ladbrokes. An interesting bet is whether Galloway will…

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