politicalbetting.com

The polling continues to find more saying it was “Wrong” than “Right” In the months after the referendum we used to cover this polling from YouGov at regular intervals. The pollster has been using the same tracker question since July 2016 and for the past two and a half years the findings have almost all been that those sampled think Brexit was wrong. The chart shows some of the splits from the polling which has broadly followed the same pattern…

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Last Thursday’s by-election result in Batley and Spen should help quieten down the Starmer should go narrative that was building up particularly in the media. This has been a product of the extraordinarily difficult period that the LAB leader has found himself in after securing the job two weeks into the first lockdown in April last year. Since then the politics have almost totally been about controlling COVID and we have been in an unusual political situation because everything is…

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As it is both Starmer and Davey are now invigorated In the past two and a bit weeks the mood of Labour and Lib Dem parties has soared following the Chesham and Batley by-elections. For in both seats the Tories were widely believed to be next to near certainties and this was driving the media narrative and the betting. Betfair had the blue team as a 75%+ chance to take Batley and a 95% one in Chesham. There’s been an…

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As expected Starmer has got something of a boost in the Betfair next PM betting following his party’s narrow victory to hold onto Batley in the early hours of yesterday morning. In view of George Galloway’s intervention taking 22% of the vote this was a far better result for Labour than many right wing commentators have been ready to acknowledge. Galloway’s stated aim was to undermine Starmer and he flopped even though he took such a large share of the…

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There have been thirteen Westminster by-elections since December 2016 and an extraordinary fact is that in all but one of them, Stoke Central in February 2017, the winning candidate has been a woman. This streak started with Sarah Olney gaining Richmond Park for the LDs followed by Caroline Johnson’s safe retention of Sleaford and N Hykham a week later for the Tories. Trudy Harrison gained Copeland from LAB for the Tories two months later on the same day as Stoke…

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