In the Batley betting the Tories are not as strong a favourite as they were at C&A

In the Batley betting the Tories are not as strong a favourite as they were at C&A

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What’s the Galloway impact going to be? Judging by the reports the Batley by-election campaign has become an increasingly nasty affair with the campaign of the Labour candidate, sister of murdered MP Jo Cox, and facing what could be seen as physical intimidation. Who has been behind this we do not know but my guess is that it might just help her. What we don’t know is whether the UKIP/CON supporting former RESPECT and LAB MP George Galloway is going…

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The voting segment that is most hostile to BoJo – ABC1 Remainers (CORRECTED)

The voting segment that is most hostile to BoJo – ABC1 Remainers (CORRECTED)

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The above polling is from the latest Opinium poll and shows how different groups feel about the PM based on their socio-economic grouping and what they did in the referendum. We know that ABC1s are the ones who are least enamored by the current occupant of Number 10 but because of the way Opinium presents its data we can break the segment down even more. I think this chart very much illustrates why the Tories really struggled in Chesham and…

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The Butler did it?

The Butler did it?

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The Sunday Telegraph are reporting that Dawn Butler, a prominent Jeremy Corbyn ally, denied on Saturday she was preparing to challenge Sir Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership, amid claims of a hard-Left plot to replace the Labour leader after the Batley and Spen by-election. Ms Butler, who was a frontbencher under Mr Corbyn, was seen in the West Yorkshire constituency with a camera crew last week, leading to speculation that she was putting together material for a leadership bid. Labour…

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The man who refused to be a sub to Dom is back in the cabinet

The man who refused to be a sub to Dom is back in the cabinet

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Because Matt Hancock wasn’t lying when he said he was hard at work we now have a new Health Secretary, I think this is a good appointment even before the self confessed liar Dominic Cummings denounced the appointment (after all Javid wasn’t fired by the PM, he resigned, but as usual facts are inapposite in Cummings world.) My expectation is that being Health Secretary is going be even more of a challenge than in a pre pandemic world with an…

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The first of tonight’s polls: By 58% to 25% those sampled say Hancock should resign

The first of tonight’s polls: By 58% to 25% those sampled say Hancock should resign

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Even CON voters say he should go There is no way of interpreting this as being anything other than bad news for the HealthSec who has played a key role in making the COVID regulations which he himself did not follow. The CON voters’ split above is particularly significant. In the betting it is currently as I write on Smarkets it is a 99% chance that Hancock will go. Other polls are expected this evening and this post will be…

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On the betting markets punters make it a 67% chance that Hancock will still be in his job on July 1

On the betting markets punters make it a 67% chance that Hancock will still be in his job on July 1

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The above chart if from the Smarkets betting exchange and as can be seen there is not a lot of liquidity at the moment though you can see this one gathering momentum with a fair amount of switching from one to the other. I just wonder what the Sunday papers might have in store for the man who was always ready to take on a harsh line on those who didn’t follow the lockdown rules over which he has had…

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