Why Labour would be crazy to replace Starmer
Last Thursday’s by-election result in Batley and Spen should help quieten down the Starmer should go narrative that was building up particularly in the media. This has been a product of the extraordinarily difficult period that the LAB leader has found himself in after securing the job two weeks into the first lockdown in April last year. Since then the politics have almost totally been about controlling COVID and we have been in an unusual political situation because everything is…
After two by-election flops the Tories should blame their own complacency
As it is both Starmer and Davey are now invigorated In the past two and a bit weeks the mood of Labour and Lib Dem parties has soared following the Chesham and Batley by-elections. For in both seats the Tories were widely believed to be next to near certainties and this was driving the media narrative and the betting. Betfair had the blue team as a 75%+ chance to take Batley and a 95% one in Chesham. There’s been an…
Why lockdown scepticism doesn’t resonate much with the voters
Turns out it isn’t the economy, stupid. Ever since the beginning of the first lockdown one of the things I’ve noticed is pieces and comments along the lines of that the pandemic has ‘led to an extraordinary expansion of government power‘ but as a keen studier of history I know this sort of thing happens when there’s a genuine problem facing the country. For example the Emergency Powers Acts at the start of world war two or even the Thatcher…
The slavish devotion of Republicans to one person is damaging to the country
This poll is part of a continuing series of polling which shows the GOP proving that they can sink lower than before. You would have thought if the January 6th insurrection really was the fault of Joe Biden and the Dems then they wouldn’t want to move on from it and keep on banging on about it. This polling does have betting implication, the changes since January means the mood is moving back to Donald Trump which should help his…
Following LAB’s narrow Batley victory Starmer moves up in the next PM betting
As expected Starmer has got something of a boost in the Betfair next PM betting following his party’s narrow victory to hold onto Batley in the early hours of yesterday morning. In view of George Galloway’s intervention taking 22% of the vote this was a far better result for Labour than many right wing commentators have been ready to acknowledge. Galloway’s stated aim was to undermine Starmer and he flopped even though he took such a large share of the…
In the last 13 Westminster by-elections just one has been won by a man
There have been thirteen Westminster by-elections since December 2016 and an extraordinary fact is that in all but one of them, Stoke Central in February 2017, the winning candidate has been a woman. This streak started with Sarah Olney gaining Richmond Park for the LDs followed by Caroline Johnson’s safe retention of Sleaford and N Hykham a week later for the Tories. Trudy Harrison gained Copeland from LAB for the Tories two months later on the same day as Stoke…
Could Batley change Starmer’s fortunes?
Like all party leaders after a much publicised by-election victory Keir Starmer sped up to constituency for the now customary photo event with the winning candidate and assorted party workers. For all the Tories have tried to play this result down the expectations were that they were heading for another clear victory in “the North” so long seen as LAB territory. The betting markets, as discussed in an earlier thread, are a good way of looking at perceptions and it…