politicalbetting.com

Punters make it a 67% chance that restrictions will be re-introduced before the year end With so-called Freedom Day scheduled for tomorrow, several of the papers are leading on the fact that this is going to be nothing like what BoJo had declared not so long ago. It is not helped by the fact that HealthSec Javid has now contracted the virus. This is how the S Times is reporting it: Britain faces disruption to food supplies, transport networks and…

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One of the big assertions about July 19th is that this will go on being designated “Freedom Day” although the main effort thereafter will be to encourage us all to maintain the habits that we have all become used to. The big difference is that anybody who doesn’t want to follow this can do so without fear of penalty. It has been made very clear that there will be no reintroduction of compulsory controls – the big question is whether…

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Even the fully vaccinated are being ordered home Quite what ministers do about this one is hard to say but when one of the main mechanisms in controlling the virus is being deleted off their phones by users then there is a serious issue. You can understand why because after a year and a half of controls large numbers are being confined to their homes because the app tells them that they should. This is affecting the hospitality and retail…

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Going beyond four years adds to the risk I have just bet at 3.6 on Betfair that 2023 will be the year of the next general election. The Fixed-term Parliament Act is being replaced by a new measure that puts the control of the next election date into the hands of the prime minister My guess is that BoJo/Sunak or whoever the PM will be in a couple of years’ time won’t want to risk hanging on until the latest…

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In all British political polling at the moment the regular Ipsos-MORI political monitor stands out because it is just about the only one that still carries out fieldwork by telephone. Normally its findings are in broad line with the online pollsters but not so this time. Its voting figures are CON 40%, LAB 31% and the LDs on 13% – the latter being by far the biggest for Davey’s party. For a poll watcher like me where the firm stands…

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I’ve been out most of the day and have only just caught up with today’s PMQs when BoJo’s apparently ambivalent position on taking the knee came under scrutiny from the former DPP and now LAB leader, Starmer. This is how the Indy’s John Rentoul describes it under the heading “Boris Johnson is on the wrong side of his own ‘culture war’ and he knows it – no wonder he was squirming”. Johnson’s body language told the story, as Starmer recited…

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Never mind “Not Quite Freedom Day”. While few have been noticing, the government is busy trying to introduce some pernicious new principles into our laws which will limit our freedoms even as we are finally allowed not to wear masks. The “RNLI Criminalisation” Clause The government denies this of course. But clause 38(2) of the Nationality and Borders Bill amending S.25A(1)(a) of the 1971 Immigration Act makes it an offence to help anyone seeking asylum in the UK. It is…

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