politicalbetting.com

Thanks to the excellent Election Maps site for the list of LD targets. It has produced charts like the above for all the parties based on what happened at GE2019. One of the big lessons that the LDs learned from GE2019 was that it is very hard to achieve victory in a seat when they were not runners up there at the previous general election. It is that previous outcome that is so important in setting expectations. Thus right from…

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Two things are for sure – Cummings is not going to go away and he’s become BoJo’s biggest, most powerful and dangerous critic. He played such a crucial part in the 2016 referendum and arguably it was his finely tuned approach to messaging that won the day for Leave. He is the one who is credited with the slogans “Take Back Control” and also the “Get Brexit Done” from GE2019. In many many ways it was his political skill that…

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Undoubtedly today’s big political event will be the broadcast by the BBC of the Laura Kuenssberg interview with Dom Cummings. As part of the build-up some choice comments are being circulated. The ones that stands out are these reported in the Sun: Undoubtedly Dom wants BoJo out and the veracity of his assertions need to be judged against that but it does appear to have the potential to damage. As the YouGov analysis of GE2019 above shows the Tories owe…

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The Tories have been ahead in the polls for months now and by significant margins. Sure, they lost Chesham & Amersham and failed by a tiny number of votes to win back Batley & Spen, both disappointments and, in the case of the former, a possible warning sign. But even so the polls are stuck with the Tories hovering around the 40% mark, sometimes up to 43% and Labour around 30%. Why might this be? Some suggestions: – Boris got…

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The Smarkets exchange where Shadsy is now running the political markets, has just put up a new bet – when will LAB next get a poll lead? The rules are dead simple: This market will be settled as a winner for the relevant year if any of the following polling companies publicly report a headline voting intention lead for the Labour party: Opinium, YouGov, Redfield & Wilton, Savanta ComRes, Survation, Deltapoll, Kantar TNS, Ipsos Mori or BMG. The qualifying date…

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The big plan was that today would be dominated by Johnson’s big speech to the nation with all the Churchillian undertones to celebrate how the country had got through the COVID crisis and now, thanks to the vaccination success, we could look forward to a new future. Even the name Freedom Day fits in with the wartime references. Unfortunately, COVID is still with us with huge numbers of new cases each day. There is some consolation to be had by…

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Savanta/ComRes has carried out a quickie poll today on the story that’s been dominating UK politics – the apparenty effort, since abandoned, to dodge the isolation rules. The poll of English adults had 60% saying that the plan by the Prime Minister and the Chancellor to not self-isolate having been a close contact of a positive coronavirus case was unfair. Just 33% say that the original plan for the Prime Minister and Chancellor to instead be part of a pilot…

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