The retirees back the Tories so expect the workers to see their taxes rise

The retirees back the Tories so expect the workers to see their taxes rise

Today reports emerged in several newspapers that the government is looking at increasing national insurance contributions to overhaul social care. I’m so old I remember when the Conservative Party I used to be a member of rightly described increases on national insurance as a tax on jobs, as this chart below shows. In my lifetime when the Conservatives start increasing taxes against the manifesto commitments or start messing around with taxation related to houses then they pay a huge electoral…

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Known unknowns. The General Election 2023/4

Known unknowns. The General Election 2023/4

Donald Rumsfeld, who died in June, will always be remembered for his statement about ‘known unknowns’ with reference to Iraq. The term was apparently already in use at NASA for risks that one is aware of, which is where Rumsfeld came across it.  So casting our minds to the approaching next General Election what might the ‘known unknowns’ be here in UK for the 2023/24 campaign? The NHS. Obviously a perennial election regular, but this time it could be absolutely…

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2 Samuel 22:50 applies to the British Polling Council

2 Samuel 22:50 applies to the British Polling Council

I’m struggling to remember a more loaded polling question but the response was still even more shocking, it might explain why long term Biden won’t take a political hit for the Afghanistan withdrawal. But then I saw this poll from Rasmussen commissioned by Pizzagate peddling far right activist Jack Posobiec and I thought wow Rasmussen really are a joke, they make Trafalgar look good. We should be grateful for and thank the Lord to the British Polling Council and their…

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The next G20 leader to leave

The next G20 leader to leave

This is a very interesting market from William Hill and I also like the terms of this bet which makes what happens in certain circumstances. If you look at the list below which shows when each of the next country has their next election you can understand why Suga of Japan is the favourite in this market. Canada – September 20th 2021 Japan – On or before 28 November 2021 France – 10th and 24th of April Brazil – 2nd…

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The afternoon must watch

The afternoon must watch

Ministers in trouble have always been a great source of profit and comment in the history of PB. So Dominic Raab’s appearance today (for an hour) at 2pm before the Foreign Affairs Select Committee gives him an opportunity to recover his position or make it much worse. The indications are he is likely to throw his colleagues at the Ministry of Defence and Home Office under the bridge something he has started to do with his comments in the few…

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It’s Now Easy Bein’ Green

It’s Now Easy Bein’ Green

Public concern about climate change, the environment, and pollution doubles to a near record level Given recent events but (going back further) I’m not surprised to see pollution/environment/climate change so high on the issues index. What I love about the Ipsos MORI issues index is that is based on the unprompted responses of the respondents. With the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP 26) taking place in Glasgow between the 1st and 12th of November I suspect concern about climate…

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It’s the alpacalypse for Geronimo

It’s the alpacalypse for Geronimo

Should the government be worried about a backlash? This might sound like wooly thinking when it comes to alpacas but I wonder the state sanctioned assassination of Geronimo today might lead to problems for the government. Last week I was genuinely shocked by the result of this poll from YouGov where 40% of the public said human lives are worth the same as animal lives coupled with 3% said animal lives are worth more. I expected to see those who…

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