politicalbetting.com

Following the very sad demise at such a young age of James Brokenshire we now have another Conservative Westminster by-election defence in the offing. The GE2019 outcome from Old Bexley and Sidcup makes it look a very safe seat indeed and it would be a sensation if the Tories do not hold on. There are two figures I always check first when a specific constituency comes into play – how did it vote in the 2016 Referendum and what proportion…

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Under Boris Johnson the Tory poll lead seems untouchable. Untroubled by queues for petrol, supply chain issues, inflation increases, regular scandals, foreign policy mishaps, the list of things which sunk previous governments but barely scratches this one goes on and on. Many people conclude, quite reasonably, that Johnson is central to this appeal and under him the Tories are strong favourites to win another majority at the next election. So why do bookies think there is a 1 in 3…

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Undoubtedly the Conservatives are doing very well at the stage to be maintaining the poll lead over Labour and the question must arise as to whether the prime minister will decide to go for it early before things like the tax rises due for next spring come into effect? No doubt we are going to see increasing media speculation over this but I am not convinced – mind you I wasn’t convinced in April 2017 when TMay surprised us all…

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If others follow YouGov then a BoJo win – but will they?

Above is the chart showing the changes on the betting markets for the next general election over the past year and as can be seen a hung Parliament remains the favourite with things having not really changed that much during the conferences. As I have stated before I think the betting number that is wrong here is on a Labour majority because the sheer scale of the task facing Starmer’s party is so great that it is very difficult seeing…

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Like last week’s Starmer speech poll this latest had the pollster Opinium, showing 1,305 voters, key sections of today’s and then asking them the same questions. This is from the Sky News report linked to in the Tweet above: After watching Mr Johnson’s speech, 51% said they agreed with what he had to say against 41% who did not. Some 53% said the prime minister came across as strong, while 30% said he came across as weak.And 49% said he…

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I’m sure on a visceral level the speech will go down a hit in the polls and the country but substantively in the week universal credit is cut and gas prices seem to rise ever more it might be misjudged in the future, but my betting position remains the same, the Conservatives are on course to win the most seats at the next election based on past polling precedents. TSE