I was a bit disappointed at the weekend that the only new poll was Opinium for the Observer and that had fieldwork dates of November 10-12 compared with the ComRes November 11-12. Generally, with internet polls the bulk of the sample responds on the first day of fieldwork so it is hard to compare Opinium with ComRes. On the face of it the latter with its 40% LAB share looks like it could be an outlier but we do need…
The recent record lows in Johnson’s leadership ratings and LAB taking the lead have sparked off a flurry of activity in several betting markets including the year in which Johnson will go. Although it is down a bit “2024 or later” is still the favourite but it is no longer odds-on and as can be seen 2022 is moving upwards. I’m sure that most PBers are familiar with the Tory party leadership rules which make ousting a leader a lot…
For those of us who campaigned for the Tories in the 1997/2001/2005 general elections we can attest how corrosive sleaze was to the Tory cause. It probably took a decade plus of a Labour government, led by that pretty straight sort of guy Tony Blair, for perceptions of sleaze to be more associated with Labour than the Tories, like an STD, sleaze is bloody difficult for the Tories to get rid off. With Boris Johnson’s leadership risking turning the mother…
What happens if there is no indyref2 before the next Holyrood election? I am of the view that the SNP (and other secessionist parties) have several mandates going back to 2016 which allows them to demand indyref2 because of Scotland being dragged out of the EU against her will. But what I think as Englishman is irrelevant, what matters is the views of the SNP and independence voters and supporters. Will they really enjoy not having the indyref2 they were…
We appear to have entered a new era of sleaze. How many scalps will it claim? First we had Owen Paterson, who lobbied government departments on behalf of companies paying him tens of thousands of pounds each. After initially backing him to the hilt, the government decided to cut him loose and he announced his resignation shortly thereafter. Now the floodgates are open, and every day brings a new front page about second jobs of conspicuous consultancy. The next person…
Hard to see Johnson surviving if other polls support this The Savanta ComRes poll was carried out on Thursday and Friday and other polls are in the pipeline. For the moment this has to be regarded as the trend and it does look grim for the PM. It cannot be long before the speculation is on Tory MPs having a confidence ballot on Johnson which would pave the way for a new leader and PM. Mike Smithson
Above are two projections from Electoral Calculus of a seat projection based on the latest poll R&W poll that had LAB 2% ahead. The top one uses the existing boundaries while the bottom one uses the new ones that are due to come into effect in 2023. On the current boundaries, the projection has the Tories 7 seats behind. On the 2023 ones the projection has CON 13 seats ahead so although the Tories would be behind on votes they…
“The louder he talked of his honour, the faster we counted our spoons“. Such might be the reaction to the Prime Minister’s assertion this week that Britain was “not remotely a corrupt country” and that he did not believe that “our institutions are corrupt“. Mandy Rice-Davies’ response comes to mind. Still, there is something impressive in the way he asserted that MPs breaking the rules should be investigated and punished barely days after having whipped his MPs into voting for…