What happens if there is no indyref2 before the next Holyrood election? I am of the view that the SNP (and other secessionist parties) have several mandates going back to 2016 which allows them to demand indyref2 because of Scotland being dragged out of the EU against her will. But what I think as Englishman is irrelevant, what matters is the views of the SNP and independence voters and supporters. Will they really enjoy not having the indyref2 they were…
We appear to have entered a new era of sleaze. How many scalps will it claim? First we had Owen Paterson, who lobbied government departments on behalf of companies paying him tens of thousands of pounds each. After initially backing him to the hilt, the government decided to cut him loose and he announced his resignation shortly thereafter. Now the floodgates are open, and every day brings a new front page about second jobs of conspicuous consultancy. The next person…
Hard to see Johnson surviving if other polls support this The Savanta ComRes poll was carried out on Thursday and Friday and other polls are in the pipeline. For the moment this has to be regarded as the trend and it does look grim for the PM. It cannot be long before the speculation is on Tory MPs having a confidence ballot on Johnson which would pave the way for a new leader and PM. Mike Smithson
Above are two projections from Electoral Calculus of a seat projection based on the latest poll R&W poll that had LAB 2% ahead. The top one uses the existing boundaries while the bottom one uses the new ones that are due to come into effect in 2023. On the current boundaries, the projection has the Tories 7 seats behind. On the 2023 ones the projection has CON 13 seats ahead so although the Tories would be behind on votes they…
“The louder he talked of his honour, the faster we counted our spoons“. Such might be the reaction to the Prime Minister’s assertion this week that Britain was “not remotely a corrupt country” and that he did not believe that “our institutions are corrupt“. Mandy Rice-Davies’ response comes to mind. Still, there is something impressive in the way he asserted that MPs breaking the rules should be investigated and punished barely days after having whipped his MPs into voting for…
It has been quite clear over the past three or four weeks that the voting intention polls have been tightening and now the latest Redfield & Wilton survey is reporting a 2% LAB lead – the best performance for the party for well over 18 months. Quite what is driving this is hard to say but there has also been a decline in Johnson’s leader ratings. It was back in April last year that the Tories started to build up…
Smarkets are continuing with their weekly local by-election bets and tonight’s contest is in a ward which I know well and where my wife and I rented a cottage just before the March 2020 lockdown. It is the University and Scotforth ward on Lancaster council. The last time this ward was contested with three seats available the result was: Lab 295, 278, 267Green 217, 175, 142Cons 119, 113, 112LD 88, 83, 72 Currently, the Green party is favourite and is…
For the second day running the Daily Mail decides that Geoffrey Cox is the main story unlike almost the rest of the papers which have moved on. I’m not so sure what the impact on public opinion that the Cox story is having apart from highlighting the fact the Tory MP is a very successful lawyer. It is getting to a stage where Johnson needs to do something about the the MP second jobs issue which could be very tricky…