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An axiom I believe in is that success equals performance minus anticipation, based on this polling the public expect some new restrictions to be brought in for the Christmas period. I’m a bit more optimistic because of our vaccine rollout and booster strategy has generally been pretty good, which should negate the need for any restrictions. The contrast with Europe’s looming Covid-19 should provide a good contrast for the UK government. Over the last twenty months the polling in this…

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Putting the December contests into context The above chart from Wikipedia makes the point simply and clearly – Westminster by-elections can produce outcomes with massive swings that can be hard to predict. It is one of the reasons why I love them and my only current regret is that the media seems to be giving them less attention than they used to. Next month, of course, sees two by-elections with Tory defences. The first is next Thursday at Old Bexley…

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If Owen Paterson had just accepted the suspension he’d almost be returning to the Commons by now. Instead, the attempt to save him from a recall petition has led to the largest stumble since Boris Johnson took office, weeks of critical headlines, and Paterson’s resignation anyway. Now the Tories face a by-election while tied (or even behind) in the polls and in the unfamiliar position is being on the defensive. After Chesham and Amersham, could another true blue seat give…

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One of the things about by-election betting is that unless you have a fair idea of what is happening on the ground then it is hard to come to any conclusions. What we do you know about this contest is that it is coming after a very difficult period for the Conservatives and for Johnson. The national polling position of the Tories has slipped a few steps since the seat became vacant in the second week of October. Then CON…

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We have not looked at this betting chart for some time but clearly the chances of Johnson getting a second successive majority have taken a hit in recent months and are now at their lowest point since March. There is a similar pattern in the Johnson exit date betting. It is not long, surely, before the issue of whether the PM is the right person to lead the party next time will become much more widely discussed. There’s no doubt…

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A reaction to today’s rail annoucement These are his reasons:

CON 37%-2 LAB 37%+2 LD 10%+1 GRN 4% Yet another pollster, Survation, has the Tories losing their poll lead although it has the main parties level pegging. The real meat of the poll which should worry Number 10 are perceptions about integrity and honesty which have been sparked off by the botched handling of Owen Paterson. On the reputation of the Government, 59% said they do not believe the government upholds the Nolan principle of integrity, and 62% do not believe…

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