politicalbetting.com

In face of the chaotic last six years in British politics, it can be easy to lose sight of a constant phenomenon: governing parties do not defend by-election seats very well. Since 1979, governing parties have had to defend 65 seats in parliamentary by-elections but have only managed to win just under half of them (30). Of these 65 seats, Conservative governments have had to defend 43, winning an even lower proportion with 14 (33%). In fact, more Liberal Democrat…

Read More Read More

Above are the latest Westminster voting and as can be seen one of the big trends in recent months has been some very good polling numbers for the Greens. The party got, let’s remember, just 2.7% of the GB vote at GE2019. YouGov, in particular, has them at triple their GE2019 share. Given that one of the features of the past two general elections is that more than half of those saying GRN six months beforehand actually went LAB then…

Read More Read More

CON still strong favourite and LDs ease a touch Latest Betfair prices on the Shropshire North by-election have the Tories at 62.5% with the LDs out a touch to 34%. Labour has edged up to a 2% chance following the publication of a so-called “poll” by LabourList that has the LDs on just 11% with LAB not too far behind to Tories. In publishing this LabourList is putting its credibility on the line and this will be remembered. Clearly some…

Read More Read More

A week on Thursday we have the Shropshire North by-election to fill the vacancy created by the resignation of Owen Paterson and as can be seen in the betting chart the Lib Dems are edging up. Having tipped the party strongly in the Chesham and Amersham election back in June I have to say I have less confidence about an LD gain from CON here. This does not mean I don’t think an LD gain will happen. C&A met all…

Read More Read More

In a Tweet that appears to be in response to TSE’s header yesterday on Yvette Cooper’s leadership chances, the Indy’s John Rentoul has posted the above. For the boundary changes appear to be very helpful to the former Labour cabinet minister. Thus the possibility of her not being an MP after the next election is just 19% according to the Electoral Calculus projection based on the new boundaries. Of course if the election takes place before the changes come into…

Read More Read More

The panto season appears to have started early this year. Appropriately enough it relates to a Xmas party which happened at 10, Downing Street around this time last year. Oh, yes it did! Oh, no it didn’t! say others – mostly unmemorable junior Ministers. And even if it did no rules were broken. A big fuss about nothing, yet others will say. Hmmm ….. those who were fined for breaking the Covid rules might disagree. The hospitality venues who lost…

Read More Read More

Following her reappointment as Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper became the third or fourth favourite with a few bookies to succeed Sir Keir Starmer as next Labour leader. I’m not keen to back her, in fact I’m a layer in this market. One reason for me is that Yvette Cooper put in a nondescript performance when she was Shadow Home Secretary for nearly five years between 2011 and 2015, then as Shakira sang, HIPS Don’t Lie, then there’s her constituency…

Read More Read More