Although I think that the LDs have a good chance in Thursday’s North Shropshire by-election I am not tempted by the current odds which currently rate the party’s chances at 61%. Even though we know that the party is “good” at Westminster by-elections this is far too tight. I would rate the party’s chances at evens but no tighter. In any case I got on Davey’s party at 5 and longer at the start of the campaign so will get…
Dreadful figures for Number 10 from Ipsos MORI What is remarkable about this is that generally, the incumbent PM gets a polling bonus when compared to the Opposition leader. This is the analysis of Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research at Ipsos MORI: Boris Johnson and the Conservatives are feeling the chill. Of course it is still only mid-term and things can change, but people told us they cared about the Downing St Xmas party, and the last few weeks…
…punters seem to think otherwise On the face of it there should be no doubt about the outcome of Thursday’s by-election in Shropshire North. At GE2019 the Tories retained the seat with a majority of 40.6% over LAB and 52.7% over the LDs. Both Quincel and TSE in previous PB headers have stuck their necks out and said that this is going to be a Conservative hold. Maybe but maybe not. In the betting for the past week or so…
The new Shadow Home Secretary, Yvette Cooper has been tweeting about Boris’s Crime Week and how it hasn’t quite gone to plan. All very enjoyable no doubt and the large Labour poll leads even more so. There is, however, one crime which came to light this week to which Ms Cooper should pay rather more attention, both because it highlights fundamental problems with essential services and, potentially, provides the basis for sensible Labour policies. The crime – or crimes –…
For someone who has been expecting the Tories to hold North Shropshire on Thursday I have to admit the mood music has made be doubt myself. I agree with the tweet from the former political journalist Steve Hawkes. What the Tories have excelled at and the Lib Dems haven’t done well is the expectations management game. If the Tories hold the seat on Thursday then it will feel like a gain, which should take remove some of pressure and grumbling…
I like this market from Smarkets because it allows you to bet on Boris Johnson’s future without getting dragged into the Boris Johnson exit markets where predicting the year of his exit which can be fraught with difficulties. This market is a simple will enough Conservative MPs write a letter to Sir Graham Brady to trigger a vote of no confidence in Boris Johnson before the next general election. My expectation is that the Conservatives will hold North Shropshire on…
We have had quite a dramatic week in the polls with LAB now recording leads over the Tories that are higher than the margin of error. The reasons have been clear for all to see. Those, like the vast majority of voters, who followed last year’s lockdown regulations are clearly not impressed by what is reported to have gone on at Number10. The main consolation for the Tories is that the polling detail suggests that many GE2019 CON voters have…
A few weeks ago I tipped the Tories to hold North Shropshire at 2/5. Since then, everything which could go wrong has gone wrong for them and 7/4 is available from two bookies (at time of writing on Friday night). Suffice to say I wouldn’t place my 2/5 bets now. But I am about to advise you to back the Tories at current odds. The core challenge in political betting, in my view, is separating emotion from prediction. Most obviously…