For someone who has been expecting the Tories to hold North Shropshire on Thursday I have to admit the mood music has made be doubt myself. I agree with the tweet from the former political journalist Steve Hawkes. What the Tories have excelled at and the Lib Dems haven’t done well is the expectations management game. If the Tories hold the seat on Thursday then it will feel like a gain, which should take remove some of pressure and grumbling…
I like this market from Smarkets because it allows you to bet on Boris Johnson’s future without getting dragged into the Boris Johnson exit markets where predicting the year of his exit which can be fraught with difficulties. This market is a simple will enough Conservative MPs write a letter to Sir Graham Brady to trigger a vote of no confidence in Boris Johnson before the next general election. My expectation is that the Conservatives will hold North Shropshire on…
We have had quite a dramatic week in the polls with LAB now recording leads over the Tories that are higher than the margin of error. The reasons have been clear for all to see. Those, like the vast majority of voters, who followed last year’s lockdown regulations are clearly not impressed by what is reported to have gone on at Number10. The main consolation for the Tories is that the polling detail suggests that many GE2019 CON voters have…
A few weeks ago I tipped the Tories to hold North Shropshire at 2/5. Since then, everything which could go wrong has gone wrong for them and 7/4 is available from two bookies (at time of writing on Friday night). Suffice to say I wouldn’t place my 2/5 bets now. But I am about to advise you to back the Tories at current odds. The core challenge in political betting, in my view, is separating emotion from prediction. Most obviously…
The Tweets above from the BBC’s Lewis Goodall who is filming in Shropshire reinforces the view that the Number 10 party story is really cutting through to the public and this should be worrying ministers. Most people, I’d suggest, have a clear memory of what happened to their Christmas last year and how plans to meet with loved ones had to be abandoned. This contrasts sharply with the apparent breach of last year’s strict lockdown rules by Johnson and his…
As a child arriving at Dover after a 2-day train journey from Naples, my mother and I would go through Customs and passport formalities, a channel marked “Aliens“. Those were the days when Customs officers did actually inspect luggage and supercilious passport officers looked at you and your passport details as if determined to find some reason for turning you back. All that changed of course. Foreign-born citizens are no longer called such harsh terms. Not officially, anyway. But now…
Other polls are expected in the next few days and the big thing is whether or not they support the Survation trend. Clearly, this has been a difficult period for the government which is attracting a lot of media coverage. I stand to be corrected but a 6% Labour lead is the best for the party since GE2019.
A reaction “Do as we say not do”? A week today the Tories will be defending the by-election – a seat they won with a majority of 40%+ over LAB at GE2019 when the LDs were in third place – 53% behind the Tories. That the LDs should be in contention is remarkable in itself but Ed Davey’s party decided to target it even before Owen Paterson had resigned. Initially, they put the resources in the expectation that Paterson would…