More striking evidence of Johnson’s polling decline
Compare these Focaldata findings from April… With these responses this week
The pre-Xmas polls won’t help Johnson’s survival chances
This morning we have had three national voting polls which are featured in the Wikipedia table above. As can be seen, the Tories have slipped with YouGov having the party on 30% which is almost 15% down on GE2019. Focaldata and Redfield have the party a touch higher but LAB is clearly ahead. No doubt Tory MPs will be feeding the numbers into Electoral Calculus to see if their seats are safe. By my reckoning, if the next election followed…
At last! Positive front pages for the PM but will the polls turn?
This morning’s front pages are quite unusual for the PM in that his announcement on Christmas mostly gets generally positive coverage. Given the way his personal ratings have plummeted in recent weeks the Tories must be hoping that this might turn the tide. This is an announcement that affects tens of millions of people in England and I know that personally for me this is great news because I’ll be able to be with the UK part of my family…
In the Johnson exit betting the money’s going on 2022
Currently the most active and biggest UK political betting market is on when Boris Johnson is going to cease to be Prime Minister. It is now as the chart shows being rated as a greater than 50% chance. Things are going very badly for the PM at the moment and I wonder whether he would help himself by curtailing his practice of making all the main government announcements. Other cabinet ministers barely get a look in. We just see too…
Johnson drops to net minus 48% with YouGov
This is close to Corbyn’s final net -50% I’ve always argued that leader ratings are a better guide to how things stand than voting intention polls. The chart from YouGov shows the trend in Johnson’s Well/Badly ratings since he was elected leader and became PM in July 2019. These latest numbers are only one or two points better than the final ratings for Corbyn and TMay. The big question now is will there be an uplift or are perceptions of…
Wise words for Boris from former CON leader Hague
After a disastrous few weeks for he PM it is inevitable that there is a lot of speculation about him being forced out something that is much easier under Tory party rules than with Labour. We have almost been seeing a negative story a day over the past week or so and a common theme is how he actually manages his affairs. The worst thing, certainly in the eyes of several focus group participants, was his Peppa PIg speech to…
Why I’m laying Liz for Leader
Conservative Party members are, on the whole, a forgiving lot. In 2019 they forgave Boris Johnson for his history of betrayals, gaffes and incompetence, gave him another chance, and made him leader and PM, graciously overlooking his record as an MP and Foreign Secretary, not to mention his colourful private life. They then continued to forgive him, for not getting Brexit done when he said he would, for the avoidable deaths of thousands in the pandemic, and even for tax…
How would a “progressive alliance” work?
The recent by-elections have prompted a rash of discussions about whether and how the non-Tory parties can work together. It’s something I’ve thought about a lot over the years, with experience of both seats where Labour was the leading non-Tory party (Broxtowe, Islington North) and seats where it wasn’t (Chelsea, SW Surrey). A few facts to start off with: Historical comparisons make it implausible that Labour will win an absolute majority at the next election. In our volatile climate, you…