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Apologies for inflicting GB News on you but I was intrigued by this interview with Dr Jan Halper-Hayes, overseas strategic adviser to Donald Trump, where she talked about the possibility of Trump being President before the 2024 election. One plan is to install Trump as Speaker of the House (and you don’t need to be a member of Congress to be Speaker) and then impeach Biden and Harris after the midterms which would make the Speaker, second in the line…

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Why the headline VI figures might not be telling the full picture One of the reasons I felt confident the Conservative party would do better than the voting intention polls for the 2015 general election suggested was David Cameron’s leadership ratings, various other supplementaries, one of which was the polling that repeatedly showed that David Cameron was consistently better rated the Conservative Party whereas as Ed Miliband was at best a non drag on the Labour party and at worst…

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One feature that really has been interesting in the past few weeks has been which cabinet members have always been there to support the Prime Minister during his recent troubles. As Steerpike in the Speccie notes this really has been down to just two – Dorries and Rees-Mogg. He writes: The current impotence of the Prime Minister can be measured in many forms. But one of them is just how few Cabinet ministers are willing to go out and give…

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Double digit poll deficits. The Parliamentary Party in open civil war*. On the wrong side of the public on the biggest issues of the day. Yes: October 2016 was a terrible time for Labour to defend a by-election in Batley and Spen. They won 86% of the vote. There’s no mystery as to why this is. With the by-election triggered by the murder of Jo Cox every mainstream party stood aside, with only minor parties and independents opposing Labour on…

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Today’s news on the timing of the Gray report has led to Sunak dropping below a 30% chance in the next PM betting. Clearly, his position had been underpinned by the likelihood of an early vacancy and the latest machinations reduce that possibility. One of my current betting positions (at 10 on Betfair) is that Starmer will be the next PM – a core element of that is Johnson still being at Number 10 at the next election. I’ve long…

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So for all of those who thought that the publication of the Gray report would be the the end of the matter now we have the news that we’re not even going to see the detail relating to what actually went on in number 10. This was of course the fear that everybody had when it was announced that the police were getting involved. On the betting markets the chances of a Johnson exit this year has now dropped even…

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A 2022 exit now a 65% With no move yet against the PM the 2022 exit gamble on the betting markets has edged down a bit and now stands at a 65% chance. It was nearly 80%. Things could move very quickly once the Gray report comes out but we are going to have to wait. There’s no doubt that Number 10 has been working hard on trying to influence Tory MPs ahead of a possible confidence vote and one…

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Although there has been something of an uptick for the Tories in some voting polls the latest from Ipsos-MORI in tonight’s London Standard is very bad for Johnson. A total of 70% said they were dissatisfied with him compared with just 24% saying they were satisfied. The firm has been doing political polling in the UK since the 1970s and has records going that far back so we can make comparisons. Mrs. T at her lowest didn’t touch today’s ratings…

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