The first findings from the Grey report don’t look good for Johnson
More follows..
If we all agreed about an outcome there would be no betting
In his regular Saturday morning slot Quincel argued that I was wrong in my assessment of the coming by-election on Thursday in Southend West. That is great because betting on what is going to happen at say an election would never be possible if there was a general agreement about an outcome. There have to be those ready on either side ready to risk money betting on what they think will happen. Quincel is a very serious punter and I…
Will Donald Trump become President before 2024?
Apologies for inflicting GB News on you but I was intrigued by this interview with Dr Jan Halper-Hayes, overseas strategic adviser to Donald Trump, where she talked about the possibility of Trump being President before the 2024 election. One plan is to install Trump as Speaker of the House (and you don’t need to be a member of Congress to be Speaker) and then impeach Biden and Harris after the midterms which would make the Speaker, second in the line…
The Conservative Party’s Johnson problem
Why the headline VI figures might not be telling the full picture One of the reasons I felt confident the Conservative party would do better than the voting intention polls for the 2015 general election suggested was David Cameron’s leadership ratings, various other supplementaries, one of which was the polling that repeatedly showed that David Cameron was consistently better rated the Conservative Party whereas as Ed Miliband was at best a non drag on the Labour party and at worst…
Nadine & Moggsy – the two Johnson uber-loyalists
One feature that really has been interesting in the past few weeks has been which cabinet members have always been there to support the Prime Minister during his recent troubles. As Steerpike in the Speccie notes this really has been down to just two – Dorries and Rees-Mogg. He writes: The current impotence of the Prime Minister can be measured in many forms. But one of them is just how few Cabinet ministers are willing to go out and give…
The Tories should sweep the board in Southend West
Double digit poll deficits. The Parliamentary Party in open civil war*. On the wrong side of the public on the biggest issues of the day. Yes: October 2016 was a terrible time for Labour to defend a by-election in Batley and Spen. They won 86% of the vote. There’s no mystery as to why this is. With the by-election triggered by the murder of Jo Cox every mainstream party stood aside, with only minor parties and independents opposing Labour on…
Rishi drops below 30% in the next PM betting
Today’s news on the timing of the Gray report has led to Sunak dropping below a 30% chance in the next PM betting. Clearly, his position had been underpinned by the likelihood of an early vacancy and the latest machinations reduce that possibility. One of my current betting positions (at 10 on Betfair) is that Starmer will be the next PM – a core element of that is Johnson still being at Number 10 at the next election. I’ve long…
The great cover up continues
So for all of those who thought that the publication of the Gray report would be the the end of the matter now we have the news that we’re not even going to see the detail relating to what actually went on in number 10. This was of course the fear that everybody had when it was announced that the police were getting involved. On the betting markets the chances of a Johnson exit this year has now dropped even…