British politics has never been more febrile but, as has been pointed out on this site, a general election probably isn’t imminent. But no matter, there are plenty of other countries to provide. South Korea goes to the polls on 9 March to elect a new President. It must be a new one, since South Korea doesn’t allow multiple terms in office. And they operate a simple system, on the surface: First past the post, two main parties and some…
Johnson v Sunak polling The above chart is from pollster Redfield & Wilton and is a question I don’t think any other mainstream pollsters ask. In addition to its standard “best PM” comparison between Johnson and Starmer the firm include two other questions which to me seem highly relevant. How would Sunak as PM rate against Starmer and separately how the Chancellor and long time betting favourite for the leadership rates against Johnson. In the latest poll as can be…
When an organisation in trouble loses its leadership, there is a tendency for the new management to embark on a reorganisation. This is usually a mistake. It’s not that reorganisation isn’t needed. It’s rather that it should not be the priority. It destabilises and distracts from the work which is needed. So it is with the Met. There are big questions to be asked about its responsibilities, about whether counter-terrorism should be hived off, about how fraud is tackled and…
New Savanta-ComRes polling issued this evening has more bad news for Johnson who is still the occupant at Number 10. Almost half, 45% that Rishi Sunak would be better at managing the economy as PM than Johnson is, according to the new polling. The figure rises to half of GE2019 CON voters 49% who say the same of Sunak, with just 21%saying that Johnson is better at it. And, almost half of Labour voters from 2019 -47% also say that…
One of the things that surprisingly we do not see much speculation about is when the next general election will be held. Whenever people talk about the date they tend to assume that it will be in 2024 but looking at what previous Prime Ministers with big majorities have done the timing tends to be no more than 4 years after the previous one. Boris Johnson or whoever is Tory leader effectively has it in their gift to choose a…
The event will be held at the offices of Smarkets at Katherine Docks close to the Tower of London, from 6 30pm to 9.pm. The address is 1 Commodity Quay, St Katharine Docks, London E1W 1AZ. Phone 020 7617 7413. These are nice offices overlooking the Dock. The guestlist includes pollsters and some other faces from the world of politics and forecasting as well as PBers. Smarkets will be providing drinks and some nibbles. We are grateful to Matthew Shaddick, Head…
Waiting for a Tory VoNC is like waiting for bloody Godot. On and on it goes. Still, on the (questionable) assumption that there will be a vacancy before the days get shorter, it might be worth considering one MP who has not yet figured in any speculation, possibly because he has never expressed any public interest in the role. Nor has anyone else suggested him. The single biggest factor affecting any choice depends on the manner of the PM’s departure…
An upcoming John Major speech said to be “highly critical” Like many PBers I am completely unable to forecast what is going to happen to Boris Johnson in the next week or so. This is currently the biggest UK political betting market and unusually for me I have not been confident enough to have a punt either way. This is all totally in the hands of Tory MPs and what they say in public has to be treated with a…