politicalbetting.com

Smarkets HQ: St Katherine Dock , London Thanks to the Smarkets betting exchange for hosting the 18th birthday party for the site at their offices in the scenic setting of St Katherine Docks in London. The address is 1 Commodity Quay, St Katharine Docks, London E1W 1AZ. Phone 020 7617 7413. The guestlist includes pollsters and some other faces from the world of politics and forecasting as well as PBers. Smarkets will be providing drinks and some nibbles. I am grateful…

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Nobody talks about it, but electoral reform is all the rage these days. Maine adopted AV (or, as they call it, Ranked Choice Voting) in 2018 for all statewide offices. The Tories are changing mayoral elections from SV to FPTP. And in Alaska an unusual system could have big implications for this year’s senate race. Alaska has merged AV and the ‘Jungle Primary’ system used by California into a unique system which works as follows: All candidates, from all parties…

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Latest from the betting markets

No doubt at all what dominates the papers this morning and each one covers in their own way Putin’s use of force to take over a European democracy. Apart from tougher sanctions it is hard to see what the international community can do short of war with a nuclear power. The big hope must be that Putin gets toppled by his own people. Mike Smithson

The one betting market that has moved following the overnight news about the invasion of Ukraine has been the above one on when Johnson will cease to be Prime Minister. Clearly, this would not appear to be a good time for Tory MPs to pursue a no-confidence vote which is just about the only way he is going to shift. A confidence vote followed by a leadership election is simply not on at the moment. All this puts into perspective…

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Sunak drops in next PM betting while Starmer moves up