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The big political news today has of course been the fines issued by police for those who attended gatherings in breach of the lockdown regulations in place in 2020. This, of course, follows the so-called “partygate” revelations. Although Johnson appears to have not been included it does raise serious questions over some of his assurances to the Commons that everything that happened then was in line with the regulations that were then in force. If so then how come so…

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How punters currently see the next general election Currently, according to the betting markets, there is a 73% chance that the election will take place in 2024. The Tories winning most votes is rated as 70% chance with the betting odds on most seats at 58%. No overall majority is seen as the 51% favourite to be the outcome with a CON majority at 36%. As to seats it is a 33% betting chance that the Tory seat total will…

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in less than 2 weeks time there will be the first round of voting in the French presidential election which decides which two of the 12 contenders go through to the final two a fortnight later. Until now we have tended to focus on the first round polling on the assumption that this is going to be a rematch of what happened in 2017 with Macron facing Le Pen. As can be seen from the chart 5 years ago Macron…

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Is DefSec Wallace a good bet? Having been bald myself since my mid-thirties I’ve always been conscious of suggestions that it could be a limiting factor in a political career. In the very early days of PB the Tories were onto their second bald leader in succession – IDS . He replaced Hague after the GE2001 disaster for the party and became the only CON leader in modern times to be booted out before he had even faced a general…

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For me it seems like only the other day but earlier on this week was the second anniversary of Boris Johnson introducing the first lockdown and I was intrigued by this polling by Ipsos. Unsurprisingly there’s very little desire any future lockdowns. The most intriguing thing for me was that 42% of the public think the UK handled the pandemic well compared to other countries whilst 27% disagree. This suggests the government might be able to campaign on their Covid-19…

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Starmer now edges it over Sunak By any measure this has been a bad week for the Chancellor. His big statement and some basic PR stumbles have seen punters move away from the former hot favourite and Starmer now tops the market by default. Rishi simply hasn’t looked like Number 10 material with things like the ludicrous picture of him trying to fill up a small Kia car with petrol when it turned out that the shot was not new…

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But aren’t they being a bit premature? One of the things about the main opposition party is that it is an awful long time ago since it was able to gain a seat in a Westminster by-election – something that the Tories and LDs have done at fairly regular intervals in recent years. In 2021 alone the Tories took Hartlepool from LAB while the LDs had spectacular gains at Chesham & Amersham and Shropshire North. You have to go back…

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