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When a LAB majority government was replaced by a CON one One of the remarkable things about British politics that is not always fully appreciated is how rare it is for a party with a working majority to be replaced by another party with a working majority. This has only happened once since WW2 – at GE1970 (the first I was able to vote in and cover professionally) when the Heath-led Tories secured a majority of 30 replacing Wilson’s Labour…

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Lawyers are very polite people. So polite in fact that it can be hard for the non-lawyer to realise when lawyers are being really quite rude, especially about other lawyers. And even more especially about Dominic Raab, who continues to miss even the low bars set for him. Such was the case recently over his plans to change the Human Rights Act, a perennial bugbear of the Tory right. Despite the endless ill-informed comments about this legislation from successive Tory…

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Comparing the March polls with four years ago National polls ask about general election voting intentions and not what people plan to do in the local elections. For a start there is a huge difference in turnout levels and in the outcomes in the latter will not impact on which party is in control at Westminster. However, as David Cowling always points out, they do offer a picture of the relative fortunes of the main political parties at those times….

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Time to bet on Sunak’s survival? Above are just six the latest front pages which focus on what looks set to be a hugely difficult period for the government as the cost of a lot of things goes up sharply and, of course, take home drops because of the rise in National Insurance levels. Already we have seen that LAB is making this it major political campaign and inevitably it will be the government that gets the blame. That Sunak’s…

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On Smarkets its a 97% chance there won’t be one The one British political betting market where we will see an outcome very soon is the Smarkets one on their being a CON poll lead in March. These are the market rules: This market relate to the headline, rounded percentage voting figures for UK or GB general election voting intention polls from the named pollsters. This market will be settled as a winner if any of the following polling companies…

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Laying the incumbent might just be a value bet The first round of voting in the French presidential election is just a week on Sunday. A total of 12 contenders will be on the ballot paper which decides which two go to the final runoff a fortnight later. In many ways this is a similar voting system for the Tory leadership in the UK when MPs vote to decide which two go forward to the membership. In the betting Macron’s…

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Surely after the move is by the Metropolitan Police against an initial 20 for their participation in lockdown parties then Johnson is making things worse for himself and his government by his defiant refusal to accept that wrongdoing took place. What this is doing is keeping the issue alive and getting even more media coverage. We saw in December and January how this impacted on the polls and his current strategy is dangerous for his future political career. Why not…

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There’s been very little betting reaction to the latest news of the party gate fines and we are going to have to wait until we know what is going to happen to Johnson. It is still an evens chance that his exit date will be 2024 or later. Rishi has had a bit of a rough ride in the next CON leader betting but this now appears to have settled down. I’m starting to think that Sunak’s time has passed…

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