As can be seen in the betting chart the market on who will be the next prime minister has moved around an enormous amount over the last couple of months. The big loser in betting terms has been Chancellor Sunak and this initially caused a fair bit of money to switch to Keir Starmer. Then everything changed when it became clear that Johnson and Sonak were getting fined for their lockdown violations in 2020. This made Starmer much less attractive…
After the brawl, the duel. The French Presidential election has been in full swing for the best part of a year for many voters, but we’ve now entered the final fortnight where the top two candidates face off. Polls show Macron consolidating his position and his lead returning to roughly 55:45, but I feel markets are too confident that the polls are spot on. Learning from our mistakes The French polls are good, but they aren’t infallible. Back in 2017,…
I am convinced that the “process illegal immigrants in Rwanda” plan is not a serious policy but Johnson throwing a dead cat onto the table in order to get the subject off his party gate fines. What is interesting is while there is great concern about illegal immigration this plan does not get that much support with most voters who have a view opposing the idea. A problem, of course, is that Rwanda itself has been the scene of some…
What we know from past experience is that local by-elections in the run-up to the main May local elections can give a reasonably good indicator about what might happen If this is indeed the case on May 5th then the results overnight were particularly worrying for the Tories who saw losses to LAB, the LDs and IND. One of the things that makes local elections so challenging is that turnouts are low and local party machines that can get energise…
TSE
Feeble CON MPs haven’t the bottle to stop them The PM and Chancellor are going to brazen it out. That much is clear. An apology, a reference to all the other much more important work that needs to be done, Ukraine, a hope that MPs and voters are weary of it all, the happy coincidence that Parliament is not sitting, and so on. It is likely to work for now, even if opinion polls show a certain amount of buyer’s…
Savanta’s poll was BEFORE the lockdown fines A giant 26 percentage point drop in net favourability for Rishi Sunak makes him less favourable than Boris Johnson, according to the latest April edition of Savanta ComRes’ political tracker. The public reaction to the Chancellor’s Spring Statement and controversies over his wife’s non-domicile tax status will contribute to the plummeting ratings, although fieldwork for this latest poll concluded before news broke about the Chancellor, and the Prime Minister, being issued with Fixed…
So Johnson and others in Downing Street appear to have survived being fined for not following the strict regime that they set up to fight COVID and punters make it almost an evens chance he’ll make it through to 2024 as PM. Looking at other potential hurdles that the PM has to surmount if he is to stay in his job the next one is set to be the period after this year’s local elections. These take place just three…