With just the possibility of a CON leadership contest being held in the next few weeks or months, ConHome has published its latest cabinet ranking based on the views of CON members who follow the site. Another new name near the top is Zahawi who I’ve got a small next leader bet at very long odds. A big mover is, of course, Sunak who now has negative ratings. Three of those rated in the betting to succeed the lockdown bandit…
I think that we are going to get quite a lot of reports like this until it actually happens and a serious move to oust Johnson is taking place. The political future of the man whose government apparently partied its way through lockdown continues to dominate politics at Westminster and inevitably there are going to be strong rumours about how close those CON MPs opposed to their leader are in setting off a process that could end his three-year premiership….
As the betting chart shows the markets are still unclear as to whether they have a view on Johnson departing this year. If I was to bet here which I have not done my money will be still on him keeping his job. I do think that there is a high chance of a confidence ballot taking place in the period after the local elections next month. What I am not convinced of is the outcome. Johnson has made it…
And from 2017. TSE
I feel like I’m like somebody who spends their life poring over unweighted Scottish subsamples by looking at these early voting figures in France but I’m sticking with my long standing betting position of Macron to crush Marine Le Pen. There is a further update at 4pm UK time but I’m going to be at the cathedral of football that is Anfield hoping to see Liverpool continue their quest to complete the tetralogy this season and if Everton play ball…
Polls are not static and we are potentially thirty-three months away from the next general election so there’s a lot of time for things to change and with Boris Johnson is hoping he is a cross between The Bee Gees and and Mr Micawber, Stayin’ Alive in the hope that something will turn up, however my view unless this polling changes by the next election then Sir Keir Starmer will become Prime Minister, especially as the Conservatives appear to be…
Midterm elections are golden opportunities for opposition parties to gain seats. The Republicans have their sights on winning several senate seats from the Democrats, as well as retain some competitive states where long-standing Senators are standing down. So why do so many of their candidates suck? Take Pennsylvania for example. Pat Toomey has been the Republican Senator since 2010, after previously being a Congressman for 6 years. Now he is standing down, and the top candidates to replace him are…
Johnson’s position as PM is looking increasingly precarious and there’s been a fair bit of betting activity on the next CON leader market. With the longstanding perceived “heir apparent” Sunak flopping last month other names have edged up with currently the man who got beaten by Johnson in 2019, ex-health Sec Jeremey Hunt, now in the favourite slot. He’s closely followed by Tom Tughendhat who has never held a ministerial position and Liz Truss. DefSec Wallace, who is regarded as…