politicalbetting.com

Those of us who had to go through several hoops to get paid out on the Theresa May exit date as Tory leader markets are understandably wary about exit date markets unless the terms are explicitly laid out, fortunately this market from Smarkets make the terms explicitly clear. In this market I’m backing No, I can get a 25% return in just over a fortnight, I cannot see Boris Johnson standing down voluntarily, even if much worse stories emerge about…

Read More Read More

By big margin Opinium has voters wanting BoJo out In other findings 76% think Johnson broke the rules (including 72% of Tory voters) , 64% think the PM isn’t telling the truth (including 50% of Tory voters) and 67% think the police should investigate (including 52% of Tory voters) The best PM ratings The danger for Downing street is that all these latest numbers could embolden Tory MPs who have it in their power to oust Johnson. But the former…

Read More Read More

Since GE2019 CON position in relation to LAB down up to 26% At GE2019 the Tories secured their big majority by taking a GB vote share which was just under 12% above LAB. In the past 24 hours we have had one poll with Starmer’s party now 14% ahead. That is an overall change of nearly 26% which is huge. Inevitably big question marks are hanging over Johnson’s position with a possible confidence move in the offing. The question is…

Read More Read More

In betting, both sides have intrinsic advantages. Punters get to pick and choose their bets, waiting for the bookie to make an error. The bookie gets to write the terms of the bet, from odds to wording and so on. Importantly, they can offer bets on only half of a market – letting people bet on some outcomes but not others. I wrote over Christmas how I sometimes dream of PredictIt being opened up to Brits. Another, even less likely,…

Read More Read More

I always feel a sense of ownership over YouGov’s regular favourability ratings. During the coalition years I was asked by YouGov if I would like a special question devised by me to be asked by the firm. After some consideration, I came up with favourability ratings which then were very common in the US but rarely seen in the UK. After a few months PB’s linkage to this polling faded out and this became a YouGov regular. Inevitably Johnson’s numbers…

Read More Read More

With the prospect of an early Conservative leadership election becoming increasingly more likely there has been a lot of activity in the betting. As can be seen Rishi Sunak has edged up even further to his highest level ever but he is still rated as only a 35% chance. Behind him is the Foreign Secretary Liz Truss who of course, has topped the last few surveys of Conservativehome when party members were asked to give their thoughts on who should…

Read More Read More

At the start of the week I suggested that Starmer was a good bet to become the next PM. My reasoning was Johnson would last to the general election when the easier seat target that Labour will have would give the LAB leader a chance of becoming PM though probably not with a majority of MPs. The bet requires Johnson to remain to fight the next election something that at times has looked very unlikely over the past couple of…

Read More Read More