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The Yorkshire Party chooses the ex-Tory and PBer David Herdson, who for nearly a decade used to post the Saturday morning slot on PB, has been selected by the Yorkshire Party for the upcoming Wakefield by-election. He is a former chairman of the  Shipley Conservative Association and then the Wakefield District Conservative Association but left the party in 2019 because of the stance on Brexit. He set out his reasons in a PB post in August 2019.: In truth, Brexit…

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The collapse of Sunak In the next CON leader betting has left open a new battleground between five top Tories who are rated by the betting markets as having the best chance of being the one who takes over from Johnson. Hunt, of course, made the final two in 2019 and did better than most people expected against Johnson. Behind him on the markets are Truss, Tugeendhat, Wallace and Mordaunt. I find this hard to call and many Tory voters…

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With just over a week to go until the Northern Irish Assembly Election [2022] commences, The chips are down, the heat is on and the pressure is truly immense! With Sinn Féin [SF] making significant gains within the 2017 Assembly Election, The polls since October 2020 have SF as the largest party. As we are all aware [Needless to mention], anything can happen in an Election (Specifically within Northern Ireland). I will be doing separate predictions within this topic. I…

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With just the possibility of a CON leadership contest being held in the next few weeks or months, ConHome has published its latest cabinet ranking based on the views of CON members who follow the site. Another new name near the top is Zahawi who I’ve got a small next leader bet at very long odds. A big mover is, of course, Sunak who now has negative ratings. Three of those rated in the betting to succeed the lockdown bandit…

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I think that we are going to get quite a lot of reports like this until it actually happens and a serious move to oust Johnson is taking place. The political future of the man whose government apparently partied its way through lockdown continues to dominate politics at Westminster and inevitably there are going to be strong rumours about how close those CON MPs opposed to their leader are in setting off a process that could end his three-year premiership….

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As the betting chart shows the markets are still unclear as to whether they have a view on Johnson departing this year. If I was to bet here which I have not done my money will be still on him keeping his job. I do think that there is a high chance of a confidence ballot taking place in the period after the local elections next month. What I am not convinced of is the outcome. Johnson has made it…

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And from 2017. TSE

I feel like I’m like somebody who spends their life poring over unweighted Scottish subsamples by looking at these early voting figures in France but I’m sticking with my long standing betting position of Macron to crush Marine Le Pen. There is a further update at 4pm UK time but I’m going to be at the cathedral of football that is Anfield hoping to see Liverpool continue their quest to complete the tetralogy this season and if Everton play ball…

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