politicalbetting.com

Leader candidates have to be MPs I have made this point repeatedly before but nothing drives me mad more at the moment than those who are betting on Andy Burnham as the successor to Keir Starmer. Burnham is of course the mayor of Greater Manchester and the only way he could be nominated for the Labour leadership is if he became an MP by the time of the next leadership election. Assuming SKS does go some friendly Labour MP might…

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But will other pollsters back it up? This is by far the best poll for the Tories for sometime and as ever the question is whether it is an outlier or not. Other recent polls have had with much bigger margins including R&W where all the fieldwork took place yesterday. Time will tell. Mike Smithson

Perhaps the best analysis is in the Financial Times which notes under the heading – Keir Starmer’s gamble could be the making of him. If he escapes a fine — as he seems sure he will — he can show himself to be a man of principle. He will be defined in the public mind as someone who believes in obeying the rules and will stand in sharp contrast to a prime minister who does not. He is the dry…

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So all those negative Mail front pages have zero effect The fieldwork all took place today.

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Yesterday I speculated that Starmer would quit if he received a fixed penalty notice, I based this on the unmatched high levels of personal integrity that lawyers have, coupled with his high sense of ethics that DPPs need, and the fact of the criticisms Starmer has rightly launched at Boris Johnson for his repeated lockdown breaches. Starmer is tune with the public as this YouGov poll shows, although Beergate appears not to have damaged Starmer’s rating at YouGov. The cynic…

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One of the best charts to explain this year’s local elections was the above one produced by Sky News during its coverage. It basically shows changes in vote share based on areas that have more or fewer graduates in the electorate than the population as a whole. As can be seen, the Tories performed worst in areas where there were 35% or more graduates and did significantly worse in those areas which had 15% or less. One of the things…

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Above from BBC News are the final totals from last Thursday’s local elections. As can be seen the Tories lost the most councillors but the LDs not the official opposition got the most seats. For the LDs this comes 12 years after under Nick Clegg that the party entered into the coalition arrangement with the Tories something that proved to be a major negative in the period that followed. Thursday’s outcome and their Westminster by-election victories in Chesham & Amersham…

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