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This morning’s front pages are quite unusual for the PM in that his announcement on Christmas mostly gets generally positive coverage. Given the way his personal ratings have plummeted in recent weeks the Tories must be hoping that this might turn the tide. This is an announcement that affects tens of millions of people in England and I know that personally for me this is great news because I’ll be able to be with the UK part of my family…

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Currently the most active and biggest UK political betting market is on when Boris Johnson is going to cease to be Prime Minister. It is now as the chart shows being rated as a greater than 50% chance. Things are going very badly for the PM at the moment and I wonder whether he would help himself by curtailing his practice of making all the main government announcements. Other cabinet ministers barely get a look in. We just see too…

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This is close to Corbyn’s final net -50% I’ve always argued that leader ratings are a better guide to how things stand than voting intention polls. The chart from YouGov shows the trend in Johnson’s Well/Badly ratings since he was elected leader and became PM in July 2019. These latest numbers are only one or two points better than the final ratings for Corbyn and TMay. The big question now is will there be an uplift or are perceptions of…

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After a disastrous few weeks for he PM it is inevitable that there is a lot of speculation about him being forced out something that is much easier under Tory party rules than with Labour. We have almost been seeing a negative story a day over the past week or so and a common theme is how he actually manages his affairs. The worst thing, certainly in the eyes of several focus group participants, was his Peppa PIg speech to…

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Conservative Party members are, on the whole, a forgiving lot. In 2019 they forgave Boris Johnson for his history of betrayals, gaffes and incompetence, gave him another chance, and made him leader and PM, graciously overlooking his record as an MP and Foreign Secretary, not to mention his colourful private life.  They then continued to forgive him, for not getting Brexit done when he said he would, for the avoidable deaths of thousands in the pandemic, and even for tax…

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The recent by-elections have prompted a rash of discussions about whether and how the non-Tory parties can work together. It’s something I’ve thought about a lot over the years, with experience of both seats where Labour was the leading non-Tory party (Broxtowe, Islington North) and seats where it wasn’t (Chelsea, SW Surrey). A few facts to start off with: Historical comparisons make it implausible that Labour will win an absolute majority at the next election. In our volatile climate, you…

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A December 25th lockdown or not? This is a tricky one for Johnson because as we all recall last year when a lockdown was brought in at what appeared to be the last minute. Now faced with the awful increasing COVID numbers a decision will have to be taken. This is one that cannot be ducked. For whatever happens it will impact on just about all of us and this is going to be very tricky. After seeing his personal…

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