Johnson holds on with 58.7% of the vote
This compares with TMay’s 63% in 2019
The ConservativeHome poll is bad news for Johnson
Since it was founded in 2004 the Conservativehome website has proved to be a good indicator of the mood amongst party members so this afternoon’s survey with 55% wanting Johnson out is not good news for the PM less than 2 hours before his fate is decided by the parliamentary party. One assumes that MPs will be aware of the mood amongst members in their own constituency and this could affect their decisions. In the betting a 2022 exit is…
New poll has 59% wanting CON MPs to vote to remove BoJo
An Opinium poll carried out this morning finds 59% saying Tory MPs should vote to remove PM with 28% saying they should vote to keep him. There were 13% saying Don’t know. Mike Smithson
The confidence vote takes place tonight
TSE
Johnson’s premiership is on a knife edge
Above is the front page of Monday’s Guardian with the UK political news that looks set to dominate the next few days. It appears we are very close to a VONC on Johnson and that could happen very quickly. Personally I think rebel Tory MPs are being premature and would be better waiting till after the June 23rd by-elections. The main case for the incumbent is that he claims the record of being an election winner and that would be…
The polling that should scare Tory MPs
A man who is seen so overwhelming untrustworthy by Tories, the oldies, the rich, and pretty much everybody else is going to lead the Tories to an epochal defeat so long as Labour aren’t led by somebody as toxic as Jeremy Corbyn. This polling feeds in to other aspects of polling and anecdata as Tom Newton Dunn reveals today. On the electoral question, the public numbers aren’t great, but they certainly could be worse. Labour’s eight-point lead should be far…
Boris Johnson confidence vote margin
I like this market from Smarkets as most of the markets on the confidence vote are if/when it takes place or on the binary outcome of the vote but this on the vote margin. Whilst it seems inevitable that a vote will be triggered this month (maybe as early as tomorrow) or later on this month if the Tories lose both by elections I wonder if Tory MPs might delay the vote until after the Committee of Privileges has reported…
It’s looking like a wake for the Tories in Wakefield
TSE