But the total is his secret There is only one UK political betting story at the moment and that is whether Johnson is going to face a vote of no confidence amongst Conservative MPs. If 54 of them send letters to Graham Brady, the 1922 Committee Chair, he will initiate the ballot at Westminster amongst the parliamentary party. If Johnson fails to win a simple majority in that secret ballot he is is out. This could all be over within…
Inevitably the main betting interest at the moment continues to be whether Boris Johnson is going to survive. Currently on Smarkets punters make it an 80% chance that he will face a VONC amongst Tory MPs in 2022. But the money is going by 60% to 40% on him surviving such a vote. That, I believe, could look different if both the June 23rd by-elections result in Tory losses as seems likely at the moment. The biggest driving force in…
At least one PBer, surely, will know when the last time that the Tory party lost two Westminster by elections on the same day. If the Smarkets betting above is correct two CON losses look like a near certainty barring a major upheaval in UK politics. All the signs are that LAB will take back Wakefield which was lost at GE2019. A Honiton and Tiverton the LDs have been very tight odds-on punts – a situation that hasn’t changed since…
But Hague disagrees Unless the 1922 Committee Chairman Brady is sharing detailed information with the Deputy PM, which I very much doubt, it is hard to see how he can make his prediction. Doing the round of talk shows this morning Raab was emphatic that Johnson won’t face a confidence vote next week, and the people he calls Tory rebels haven’t got enough names to trigger a ballot. Given the other noises that are coming from the parliamentary party this…
With just a possibility that we might soon be seeing a Conservative leadership contest the former Health Secretary and the one who made the final two last time, Jeremy Hunt, is now the clear favourite. Last time he was in the runoff with the membership and did a fair bit better than most people expected. Under the Tory rules contenders go through a series of ballots with MPs to decide which two names should go forward to the membership. He…
With the drip-feed of Conservative MP’s coming out against Johnson carrying on as party leader and PM, the BoJo exit date betting has taken a turn. 2022 is now favourite for his departure from Number 10. There’s increasingly a view that Johnson will have to face a confidence ballot at some stage – something that’s triggered when 15% of CON MPs or more write calling for such a vote. Even if this doesn’t happen immediately what could act as the…
Every month as we all know the Conservativehome website carries out a survey of its party member readers to find out their views including the regular cabinet satisfaction ratings. The latest survey is featured above and as can be seen the PM and current occupant of Number 10, Boris Johnson, is rated with a net satisfaction level of minus -15%. By a long-distance these are the worst numbers for anybody on the list. Remember that those who took part in…