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The clash, electorally, between Corbyn and Labour would be fascinating Jeremy Corbyn as mayor of London? Well I’ve read less fanciable stories in recent times however I don’t think Mayor Corbyn is likely. I do expect Sadiq Khan and other ambitious Labour politicians to ensure they are at Westminster in May 2024 in anticipation of Labour taking power sometime in 2024 so there could be an unexpected Labour candidate. With Priti Patel shamefully using the 2011 AV referendum result as…

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The prospect of Boris Johnson returning for a second stint as Prime Minister fills me with a sense of foreboding that is only matched by when my girlfriend asks to borrow my mobile phone or laptop but we have to brace ourselves for those scenarios happening. The Sunday Times isn’t alone in reporting that Multiple sources claim [Boris Johnson] believes he will one day return as prime minister, like his hero Sir Winston Churchill, who had two stints in No…

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I am finding the above YouGov CON Member’s table on Wikipedia to be an excellent resource during the current contest. Looking at it Sunak has struggled to progress while Truss has done far better following the first round of polling. This weekend I am expecting a number of national voting polls including from Opinium and my guess is that we will see some named leader polling. How would people vote at a general election with Truss and then Sunak running…

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The hot betting favourite for the next PM, Liz Truss, first had a PB thread about her in 2009 before she even became an MP. She was one of a number of prospective Tory candidates who had been brought on by a big initiative by David Cameron to broaden the base of the party’s MPs. This is from that 2009 PB header: There’s now a betting market on the situation in the safe Tory seat of South West Norfolk where…

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The Tories need a 5%+ lead We are going to hear a lot during this final phase of the Tory leadership contest about which of Truss or Sunak is best able to lead the party to another general election majority. One of the factors that we have to bear in mind is that in order to hang on then the Tories led by Liz or Rishi probably need a lead on GB votes by at least 5%. This is a…

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If other pollsters have CON member polling with similar figures then it is very hard to see Truss being defeated. We should expect this to ratchet up the rhetoric from the Sunak camp and over the weekend expect a lot of difficult stories for the Truss camp. My main caveat is that member polling is quite challenging alhough YouGov has a good record.

The London Evening Standard is reporting that the PM could face a by-election if he is found to have misled Parliament over PartyGate. It will be recalled that the Met issued 126 Partygate fines after a number of lockdown busting gatherings in Downing Street and across Whitehall. He is due to appear before the Privileges Committee, in the autumn, over whether he lied to Parliament by insisting pandemic rules were followed in Downing Street at all times. Commons Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle confirmed that,…

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