I have just had a bet at about 4/1 that the Tories will have a poll lead at some stage during September. My reasoning is that a new arrival at number 10 is going to be dominating the news in the first part of the and there’s just a possibility that this could help the Tories improve their position in relation to Labour in one or two polls at least. This will be helped, of course, by the exit of…
At a 24% chance Biden’s a good bet for the WH2024 nomination While all the PB focus for months has been on UK politics we have done very little on what is generally the biggest political betting event of all – the US Presidential election the next of which takes place in 2024. This will be the 6th White House race to be covered on PB the first being in 2004. One of the big questions in US politics is…
Unless YouGov’s CON members’ polling has got it totally wrong then on September 7th the ex anti-monarchy campaigner, Liz Truss, will be more than happy to go to the the Palace so that the Queen can ask her to form a government. On that day the former Leeds comprehensive school girl, former Lib Dem, and former Remain campaigner will become Britain’s third female PM. Now the woman who is more than ready to rubbish her old school and switch parties…
That minus 90 net favourability rating that Boris Johnson enjoys with 2019 Tory voters who currently say they would vote Labour made me think it was a typo but that is the real figure, 94% have an unfavourable opinion of Boris Johnson whilst 4% of this demographic have a favourable opinion of Boris Johnson whilst. By contrast 7% of the public tell YouGov that they personally have seen a UFO. This is another poll that makes me think the Tory…
Opponents of Boris Johnson will see this poll that shows 69% of the public want Boris Johnson to resign and think ‘nice’, but the most damning stat for Boris Johnson is that as many Tory voters wants him to go as stay, which as the tweet states about this is quite the change from the start of the month. The more we hear stories about Boris Johnson regretting resigning and/or planning a comeback in the future then I suspect the…
I’ve generally avoided betting on all things related to a future Scottish independence referendum because back in 2014 I genuinely expected the issue had been settled for a generation and didn’t fancy tying my money up for decades. After the fun of the Theresa May exit date and the 2020 Presidential markets fiasco I am also keen to avoid bets where the bets are ill defined, ambiguous, or are randomly changed by the bookie after I’ve made the bet. After…
Based on those YouGov findings Rishi Sunak’s leadership ambitions are as doomed as stepmother’s chances in succeeding in a Disney film yet there is one morsel of comfort for him. Despite Liz Truss having so many hefty leads over on so many topics yes Sunak has a 1% lead on which one looks the most Prime Ministerial, based on everything else you’d expect Truss to have a substantial lead on this question, perhaps Tory members realise Liz Truss is a…
Chart from Betdata.io The chart above from Betdata.io reflects how badly Rishi Sunak blew his opportunity last night, it was his last major opportunity to damage Liz Truss before the ballots go out to Tory members. Past form suggests Tory members send their ballots back quickly so even if Sunak damages Truss later in the later hustings it won’t have much impact. I know betting markets have been spectacularly wrong before, but I don’t think so in this instance, based…