Liz takes a bit of a tumble in the betting
This was her “Dementia tax” day So far it’s been just about the worst day for Liz Truss for some time on the betting markets. As can be seen she has slipped sharply though she is still an 81% chance. What we have observed are some of her weaknesses and she has had to do a complete u-turn on her plan to cut public sector pay. She proposed this morning that civil servants’ salaries be linked to living standards where…
Why I’m betting on a 2022 general election
Truss will never have a better opportunity Looking back to the last time a PM was replaced between elections, 2007, I often wonder whether the course of British political history would have been different if Gordon Brown had called an immediate general election after taking over Tony Blair in the June of that year. The arrival of the new Labour leader at Number 10 saw the party to see a remarkable turnaround in the polls which was broadly sustained until…
As voting starts Truss still the strong next PM favourite
The betting for next prime minister is still very much dominated by the YouGov polling of Tory members that came out nearly 2 weeks ago. This had Truss with a very clear lead of 19% and it is hard to see how Sunak can overhaul it That was all before the TV debates and heightened media interest in the process to choose who will be Britain’s Prime Minister for when Johnson finally steps down in early September Polls can, of…
Beth Mead for SPOTY?
Now a 65% chance on Betfair I have a very long record of a failing ever to bet on the winner of the BBC Sports Personality of the Year so please take my advice here with great caution. As can be seen the English editions of the nationals this morning are totally dominated by England’s victory at Wembley yesterday. Beth Mead is currently the strong odds-on favourite to win this annual vote in December but there is a long way…
This is developing into a big problem for the Tories
Poll of Tory councilors has Truss just 2% ahead
And LAB is 13% ahead in Savanta national voting poll 56% think the new PM should call an immediate election
The money goes on Truss to be PM after next election
12 days ago she was just a 5% chance My own view is that Truss punters are overstating her prospects because the challenge facing her is so much greater than Starmer. For the latter could be the post-election PM even if LAB has fewer votes and MPs than the Tories. We’ve observed several times here that the Tories will struggle to find partners to keep them in power if they come out with fewer than half the seats. The same…