These were the seats, of course, where Johnson’s Tories made so much progress at GE2019 and played a big part in giving him what amounted to a landslide majority. That, of course, was when Corbyn was the LAB leader and he was a huge negative for the main opposition party. In the forty ‘Red Wall’ seats that were polled, the Tories won all in 2019 but Hartlepool (which was won in a subsequent parliamentary by-election) with 46.7% of the vote…
We are not long off now the US Midterm elections in November when the expectation is that the Democrats will lose control of the House but possibly improve their position in the Senate. At the moment this is split 50:50 with the Vice President having the casting vote. As I noted here last week Betfair has a very different way of defining this market than Smarkets and includes an option for it to come out at 50:50 once again. It…
And LEAVE voters back the woman who was for REMAIN As well as the Redfield & Wilton numbers featured in the previous post the latest YouGov has Starmer 3% ahead as “best PM”.As can be seen LEAVE voters back Truss over Starmer by 48% to 16% which is interesting because since the Referendum Truss has switched from Remain to Leave At the moment the Tory contest is dominating the news and it is hard for the opposition to get a…
As PBers will know I have a sizeable bet on the Tories getting a poll lead in September because the new PM, presumably Truss, will be getting a lot of media attention and all the historical evidence points to replacement PMs at this stage in a Parliament leading to polling improvements for their party. Thie is what happened after Gordon Brown replaced Blair in 2007 and when Major took over from Thatcher in 1990 Truss has one huge benefit and…
In recent weeks there have been a number of reports that the Culture Secretary, Nadine Dorries, will be made a peer in Johnson’s resignation honours. This would mean that the first electoral test for the Truss administration could be a by-election defence in Mid Bedfordshire where Nadine had a huge majority last time. But based on what the LDs did in Shropshire North and Tiverton and Honiton this could just be possible for them even though they would start in…
I can see why Smarkets have put this market up, I can see why people might want to back either side. On the Yes side I can see a by election being triggered by Boris Johnson wanting to earn millions outside the glare of parliament and the register of members’ financial interests, wanting an elegant way of doing a chicken run to a safer seat, or scandal. I said at the time if Boris Johnson hadn’t already announced his resignation…
It would appear to deal with the looming energy price increases Liz Truss will cut taxes for companies rather than directly help voters. If she does that then I confidently predict at the general election only Radiohead will have a worse record than Liz Truss and her government. Those YouGov findings show how badly the voters are expecting things to get, the gold standard ONS found ‘that close to half (44%) of UK adults who pay energy bills found it…
Even on the final MP ballot she only got 31.6% One of the problems about the Conservative party’s system for electing a leader is that it is entirely possible for the person who is chosen not to be the choice of MPs – something that looks set to happen in the current contest. It used to be the case before the rules were changed during William Hague’s leadership that it was the MPs who made the decision and the MPs…