Over the next months and years I have no doubt that there will be a lot of studies on why Boris Johnson had to step down from being Prime Minister. Here was someone who proved himself to be electorally very successful. This was first seen in him taking the London mayoralty away from Labour in 2008 and then in his stunning victory in the 2019 general election. Yet at the end of the day he concluded, rightly I believe, that…
With all looking set for a handover next week a big question remains and that is what is Boris Johnson going to do when he is no longer Prime Minister. One betting markets that is relevant here is whether there will be a by-election in the Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency before the general election. The chances as rated by punters of this taking place are now down to about 40% when they were much higher. He could course remain…
All eyes will be on the polls This time next week the new PM will have been in office for two days and have handled, well or badly, the first PMQs. At times like this the voting polls take on new importance and the question will be whether the gap behind LAB can be closed or even wiped out. I have been betting on a September poll lead in at least one poll during the month and am less certain…
One of the most positive things that will be said about Johnson is the manner of his exit. He read how opinion was moving and his announcement was absolutely right. It was him taking the initiative. If he is to have a future of some sort then he will be helped by the timing and what he said in his exit announcement. Those calling for him to stay have got it wrong when it comes to public opinion as seen…
So why does Truss think she’s any different? in June 2007, the last time there was a change at Number 10 halfway through a parliament, Gordon Brown was ready to go on Newnight and face tough interview. Yes the circumstances with Truss are slightly different because he became LAB leader without having to fight a leadership election. He got the job unopposed but there was no question of him refusing to face the scrutiny that such an event entails. Rishi…
That really is a disgrace The Conservative leadership candidate Liz Truss is very fond of describing things as a disgrace and one of her most watched YouTube videos is of her using that term to describe UK cheese sales. The latest news from her campaign is that she has pulled out of an interview with the BBC’s Nick Robinson. Apparently she has no time which seems a pretty feeble excuse. From a campaign perspective this is probably the right decision…
These are the market rules: This market relates to the Prime Minister of the first new government formed after the next UK general election. The first person who accepts an invitation from the monarch to form a government after the election will be considered the winner. This will apply even if they immediately lose a vote of confidence in the House of Commons. The incumbent PM will be settled as the winner if they successfully form a new government (which…