Latest Truss vote share betting as we wait for the election result
To my mind under 64% seems about right because it appeared as though Truss was having a difficult final few campaign days. Not long now before her victory is confirmed Mike Smithson
Johnson’s still edging it in the Midlands right to the end
The final approval ratings on the eve of his exit This weekend we have had the final Opinium poll of the Boris Johnson Premiership and I thought it would to be useful to record how his approval ratings are doing in different parts of the country right to the end. This will be a good pointer to compare with his successor The chart shows the net approval rating lead/deficit that Johnson has compared to Keir Starmer in the latest Opinium…
Can Liz Truss turn this round?
Above is the Wikipedia polling chart showing how things have moved in the GB national opinion polls since the December 2019 General Election. The trend lines are local regressions. The overall picture is pretty clear and it shows the huge task facing the new Tory leader as she/he takes over on Tuesday. On these numbers the Tories are going to struggle to retain power. They are helped by the FPTP voting system so that their support is much more evenly…
Some worrying findings for the Tories from Opinium
Now the big story will be what he does next
Soon to be favourite to succeed Truss? We have reached another crossroads in the colourful political career of Boris Johnson who won the last election with a landslide majority for his party. The situation of having to leave a job is not new to him and in just about every case he’s been fired for not telling the truth. This latest move fits into that pattern. On Tuesday several multi-million pound political betting markets linked to him will end and…
Muddying the Waters on BoJo’s £130k legal bill
The advice has been published. You can read it here. Quite why it has been published on a government website when it is advice to the Prime Minister (instructing Peters & Peters, a reputable firm well-known to lawyers practising in the field of fraud and other financial shenanigans) is unclear. The advice is long and learned, with many references to Erskine May and others. But it is curious because it is based on one fundamentally flawed understanding and one (possibly…
SKS looks out of step with his party on renationisation
We are now moving into that period of the year when all the focus in domestic politics will be on the agendas at the autumn party conferences. These are important because they are the one big opportunity each year when members can seek to influence the leadership on the big issues of the day. The polling from Survation featured above is clearly trying to set the agenda for what will be the dominant issue at the Labour conference. As can…
Pannick on Partygate
According to the Daily Mail, the Cabinet Office has commissioned some “devastating” legal advice from Lord Pannick QC that will stop the Commons’ Standards and Privileges Committee from investigating Boris Johnson over whether he misled the Commons over parties at No. 10. This advice is apparently going to be published later today. According to the report, enforcing standards and investigating those who may have broken them will catch Ministers who “accidentally” mislead the House and this will impede the proper…