YouGov have a LAB 15% lead The Times is reporting a new YouGov poll where all the fieldwork took place after she became PM. The numbers are not encouraging for the new leader and according to the report LAB is 15% ahead. The other details are not included in the report and we will have to wait for the full breakdown. One detail we have is that YouGov found that 25% of those polled thought she would make the best…
As can be seen from the Ipsos chart Starmer has a net 13%+ rating (40% positive less 27% negative )on this measure from Ipsos in a poll carried out entirely after Truss became PM. She on the other hand is on a net minus 2% so the gap between them is fifteen percentage points. This is just about the first post PM Truss polling to be published and shows the extent of the battle she faces. I don’t think the…
Kick off is as usual at noon. This is a very big moment for both leaders but unfortunately, I have a longstanding family engagement in London and will not be able to watch live. I’m sure that both main party leaders are a bit nervous and their teams have been working hard trying to work out the best way to play this. No doubt Starmer will have dug up something that has been said on the campaign trail by Truss…
On this first day of the Truss Premiership, the betting markets are giving her a 41% chance of being Prime Minister after the next general election. As can be seen from the chart LAB is a 57% chance. I think that these current odds on Truss overstate her chances. This is on two grounds. Labour has consistently had a lead in the polls since last December and there has been little indication that this is easing off even though the…
With Truss taking over as prime minister it is perhaps worth reminding ourselves of the potential weakness she has with the parliamentary Conservative Party. On the first leadership ballot in July she came away with a meagre 50 votes out of a total 358. That hardly suggests massive backing from her MPs Even when other contenders were dropped she stiil trailed Sunak by some margin in the final MP ballot. This contrasts very sharply with her support amongst party members…
One of the features I find interesting is the choice of pictures of Truss that some papers have used. The ones used by the Mail, Express and the Times are far from flattering. Today she’s flying to Scotland for the traditional meeting with the Queen at Balmoral and we should start to see her cabinet taking shape. The general view is that this is going to be quite right wing. Hopefully we might see the first post-Truss voting intention polls….
I never know what to make of quickie polls like the one published by YouGov in the last half hour. This was carried out after the leadership election result was announced. In many ways the findings are a continuation of what we saw during the campaign where the public appeared to be more supportive of Sunak than Truss What I’m hoping for early is a new voting intention poll to see whether her arrival has impacted on the Tories. Whatever…