Punters give her a 41% chance of being PM after next election

Punters give her a 41% chance of being PM after next election


On this first day of the Truss Premiership, the betting markets are giving her a 41% chance of being Prime Minister after the next general election. As can be seen from the chart LAB is a 57% chance.

I think that these current odds on Truss overstate her chances. This is on two grounds. Labour has consistently had a lead in the polls since last December and there has been little indication that this is easing off even though the political news over the last 2 months has been totally dominated by the Conservative’s contest

The second reason I think the odds are too high is that it is assumed that Truss will be the leader to fight the general election for the Conservatives.

Make no mistake. If it appears that she is struggling getting public support then the parliamentary party will be very willing to oust her in order to have a leader who appears to have a better chance. The Tories can be ruthless.

This could all change in the next few days when we see the first post PM Truss opinion polls. A good reference is that in June 2007 Gordon Brown saw a LAB boost of 7% after he took over from Tony Blair.

Mike Smithson

Comments are closed.