Above is the Wikipedia polling chart showing how things have moved in the GB national opinion polls since the December 2019 General Election. The trend lines are local regressions. The overall picture is pretty clear and it shows the huge task facing the new Tory leader as she/he takes over on Tuesday. On these numbers the Tories are going to struggle to retain power. They are helped by the FPTP voting system so that their support is much more evenly…
Soon to be favourite to succeed Truss? We have reached another crossroads in the colourful political career of Boris Johnson who won the last election with a landslide majority for his party. The situation of having to leave a job is not new to him and in just about every case he’s been fired for not telling the truth. This latest move fits into that pattern. On Tuesday several multi-million pound political betting markets linked to him will end and…
The advice has been published. You can read it here. Quite why it has been published on a government website when it is advice to the Prime Minister (instructing Peters & Peters, a reputable firm well-known to lawyers practising in the field of fraud and other financial shenanigans) is unclear. The advice is long and learned, with many references to Erskine May and others. But it is curious because it is based on one fundamentally flawed understanding and one (possibly…
We are now moving into that period of the year when all the focus in domestic politics will be on the agendas at the autumn party conferences. These are important because they are the one big opportunity each year when members can seek to influence the leadership on the big issues of the day. The polling from Survation featured above is clearly trying to set the agenda for what will be the dominant issue at the Labour conference. As can…
According to the Daily Mail, the Cabinet Office has commissioned some “devastating” legal advice from Lord Pannick QC that will stop the Commons’ Standards and Privileges Committee from investigating Boris Johnson over whether he misled the Commons over parties at No. 10. This advice is apparently going to be published later today. According to the report, enforcing standards and investigating those who may have broken them will catch Ministers who “accidentally” mislead the House and this will impede the proper…
Over the next months and years I have no doubt that there will be a lot of studies on why Boris Johnson had to step down from being Prime Minister. Here was someone who proved himself to be electorally very successful. This was first seen in him taking the London mayoralty away from Labour in 2008 and then in his stunning victory in the 2019 general election. Yet at the end of the day he concluded, rightly I believe, that…
With all looking set for a handover next week a big question remains and that is what is Boris Johnson going to do when he is no longer Prime Minister. One betting markets that is relevant here is whether there will be a by-election in the Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency before the general election. The chances as rated by punters of this taking place are now down to about 40% when they were much higher. He could course remain…