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That chart that Ben Page has in his tweet is quite striking. In the last 42 years only two leaders of the opposition have led their parties their parties into government, unsurprisingly those two leaders are the top of these ratings. Sir Keir Starmer is more middling with his ratings indistinguishable from those who didn’t lead their parties into government, but does it matter? In one major respect it doesn’t, so long as Starmer’s ratings are better than the Prime…

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It will be interesting to see what the public reaction is because one would assume that a lot of tax cuts are going to be very popular. The only problem here is that people have been conditioned to the sort of crisis that the government is facing and were expecting the worst not what has actually happened. It is counterintuitive to say things are really bad but we have to cut taxes. No doubt there will be a lot of…

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Given the £49bn of giveaways, this is remarkable One thing I have learnt over the years of watching polls is that the initial reaction to budgets and other fiscal announcements not the one that will eventually be what the public will think. So let’s wait a few days and see how this is regarded then. Much of the public view at the moment is very much influenced I believe by perceptions of the administration which so far has yet to…

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Although it is less than 3-weeks since Liz Truss became the leader of the Conservative Party and was made Prime Minister the betting markets are still far from convinced that she will lead the party to victory in the general election. Although the few voting intention polls since she entered Number 10 have moved a touch towards the Conservatives the party still remains far behind in the eyes of punters as being a favourite to be PM after the general…

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The first Ipsos poll of the Truss era One great thing about Ipsos which used to be MORI is that it has been polling in the UK since the 1970s and has massive historical database on which we can compare things The latest poll from the firm has the Tories doing slightly better but still 10% behind labour. For me the interesting the interesting part is that which is featured in the chart above showing how different Prime Ministers who…

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Now the Dems edge into the lead Of all the elections in the US taking place on November 8th one that is particularly important is for the House of Representatives where currently the Democrats have a small majority. What the polling chart above shows is that for most of the time in the last few months the Republicans have been polling markedly better than the Democrats. This has now changed. It should be noted here that the question is a…

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The markets make it a 22% chance that she won’t Over the last few days we have seen a series of policy speeches by Liz truss which seem to set her government on course to be the most right wing one in recent times. Her policy agenda is almost totally different from that which was in GE2019 manifesto and it can be argued that she has no mandate at all. Quite what the parliamentary Conservative Party makes of it we…

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