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When Johnson was effectively sacked as Conservative leader and Prime Minister following the revolt by Tory MPs in July the widespread assumption was that he would leave politics and go and earn huge amounts of money as a columnist and guest speaker. The interesting thing is that what was predicted for Boris has not actually happened and he is still there playing an active role in politics and according to insiders looking to get his old job back. As the…

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The 2022 Special Fiscal Operation delivered by Kwasi Kwarteng might be the most politically tone deaf budget in my lifetime if not longer. As well as being bad economically (just look at the increase on the cost of government borrowing) it writes Labour’s attack lines. In a cost of living crisis giving people earning over £155,000 per year tax cuts is really bad optics, and this budget is only likely to see growth in the Swiss and Italian economies. TSE

That chart that Ben Page has in his tweet is quite striking. In the last 42 years only two leaders of the opposition have led their parties their parties into government, unsurprisingly those two leaders are the top of these ratings. Sir Keir Starmer is more middling with his ratings indistinguishable from those who didn’t lead their parties into government, but does it matter? In one major respect it doesn’t, so long as Starmer’s ratings are better than the Prime…

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It will be interesting to see what the public reaction is because one would assume that a lot of tax cuts are going to be very popular. The only problem here is that people have been conditioned to the sort of crisis that the government is facing and were expecting the worst not what has actually happened. It is counterintuitive to say things are really bad but we have to cut taxes. No doubt there will be a lot of…

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Given the £49bn of giveaways, this is remarkable One thing I have learnt over the years of watching polls is that the initial reaction to budgets and other fiscal announcements not the one that will eventually be what the public will think. So let’s wait a few days and see how this is regarded then. Much of the public view at the moment is very much influenced I believe by perceptions of the administration which so far has yet to…

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Although it is less than 3-weeks since Liz Truss became the leader of the Conservative Party and was made Prime Minister the betting markets are still far from convinced that she will lead the party to victory in the general election. Although the few voting intention polls since she entered Number 10 have moved a touch towards the Conservatives the party still remains far behind in the eyes of punters as being a favourite to be PM after the general…

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The first Ipsos poll of the Truss era One great thing about Ipsos which used to be MORI is that it has been polling in the UK since the 1970s and has massive historical database on which we can compare things The latest poll from the firm has the Tories doing slightly better but still 10% behind labour. For me the interesting the interesting part is that which is featured in the chart above showing how different Prime Ministers who…

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