Over the last year also I have been very cynical about the betting prices on a LAB majority. The scale of what Starmer faces is massive given that he starts on 202 seats and needs 326 to get over the line. . The Scottish situation remains what it has been since the Indy referendum and the idea of Labour getting back to the days when it held 40 of the 59 seats north of the border is simply not going…
Poll suggests 191 CON MPs could lose their seats After just three weeks and two days in the job punters are making a 2023 departure for her the favourite in the Liz Truss exit betting. In another betting market, it is now a 29.9% chance that Chancellor Kwarteng will be out this year. This really is quite remarkable and suggests that last Friday’s so-called “budget” was perhaps a big mistake. Making things a lot easier for the very rich at…
We have now got the data set of the dramatic YouGov poll that had Labour with a 17% lead over the Conservatives. The numbers I find very interesting are in the gender split where women back LAB by 50% over a 25% share for the Tories Those are quite remarkable numbers and I don’t recall ever seeing anything like them. I suppose that in terms of cost of living it is mostly women who have to bear the brunt. It…
The Tories are on 21%
The problems that Truss is having have not been helped by Starmer having a good conference and looking increasingly like the PM in waiting. Labour and its leader are on the up and the Tories moving down – something that CON MPs in marginal seats will only be too aware of. The way her government’s economic plans have gone down like a lead balloon have only added to the challenges that Truss and her largely inexperienced cabinet are having to…
It was just 3 weeks ago today that Truss learned that she had become Tory leader and the successor to Johnson. In choosing her cabinet it was made clear that the main requirement was not that of being able to do the job but how loyal they had been to Truss during the leadership campaign. Inevitably this was going to lead to trouble. The amazing thing is that it all has happened so quickly, Her choice of Chancellor and allowing…
It can’t be long before we are hearing of letters being sent to Graham Brady. One of the self-inflicted problems that Truss has created is almost none of her team have any public standing. The time, surely, is running out for the woman who could only make third place in the MPs’ ballot. Mike Smithson