And a blow for Trump We are just over a month away from the November 8th US mid-term elections when generally, as the table above indicates, the party of the incumbent president does not do well. In all but 2 set of midterms since the mid 1970s the incumbent’s party has lost seats in both the Senate and the House. On November 8th all 435 house seats will be up for grabs and 36 of the 100 Senate seats will…
The main argument for her be able to stay in post is that the Tory Party would look rather silly having another leader following all the changes in a very short period. We all recall that Cameron survived until the referendum was lost and was followed by Theresa May. She had the job of trying to get the Brexit legislation through Parliament without having enough MPs. She called the 2017 general election and ended up with even fewer MPs. This…
Inevitably given the polling since Truss became the prime minister the betting has moved to LAB to win a majority at the next general election. But even though some polls have them at 33% ahead of the Tories punters still make a Labour majority longer than evens A big issue with this bet is that it may be that the Tories decide to replace Liz Truss with someone who is a better a communicator and has the ability to attract…
With the huge collapse in the Tory poll ratings and the terrible approval numbers for Truss there is clearly a lot of speculation going on about what happens next for the Tory Party. The first month of her job has been characterised by a massive collapse for the party in the voting polls and her recording personal ratings which are completely unprecedented. The Spectator’s Katy Balls has a column headed “Could it be Rishi by Christmas” in which she sums…
Truss down 11 since Monday
This is from YouGov: Liz Truss is now less popular than Boris Johnson ever was. The prime minister’s popularity has plummeted following a tumultuous week in politics, leaving her less well-liked than other former party leaders at their lowest ebb. Just 14% of the public say they have a favourable impression of Truss in a YouGov survey conducted between 1-2 October, compared to more than a quarter (26%) who said so in the previous survey on 21-22 September. Nearly three…
We will have to wait until after the Commons return next week before we can make an assessment of how much trouble LizY is in. Polling like the above from YouGov can have a corrosive effect on a leader’s reputation which is why Liz Truss must be hoping that following her big conference speech we are going to see a reverse. My guess is that these will improve for the prime minister but not by that much and the question…