Given how the “Red Wall” and Labour’s collapse there came to dominate GE2019 analysis the regular regular tracker of opinion in the seats from Redfield & Wilton is very useful but terrifying for all the new CON MPs who entered Parliament from the seats there after making gains from LAB at the last election. A 40% deficit for Truss’s Tories in this poll sends a worrying message to almost all CON MPs who can rightly claim that they are not…
I love irony, is there no greater irony than a (former) republican having a regent? Regent to Queen Liz Truss is what Jeremy Hunt effectively is in this government. Tomorrow’s PMQs could actually matter for once, Michael Gove assessment seems accurate. TSE
Like the JL Partners poll this YouGov poll shows Tory members are having buyer’s remorse over selecting Liz Truss over Rishi Sunak and who can blame them for revolting against Liz Truss after Rishi Sunak’s warnings have been vindicated. Given her performances during the campaign where she frequently u-turned and went full Corbyn when journalists quoted her own words and press releases it was clear Liz Truss would be a complete duffer, only the terminal stupid would have predicted Liz…
New poll has him leading by 60% to 40% In a new Tory members poll reported by the Telegraph Sunak is beating Truss by 60-40% amongst those of the 500 Tory members polled who had a view. The fieldwork took place in the wake of the Truss sacking of Kwasi Kwarteng and if nothing else will infuriate Number 10. It was conducted by JL partners from Friday evening till Monday and the membership was weighted to match the result of…
But still longer than evens I find this one hard to call as, judging by the betting, so do punters. Sunak has been favourite for so long but would he fail again in a leadership contest? My guess is that the best chance of him making it to Number 10 would be if he gets a clear run unopposed and there is no contest. I think he would struggle in a two-way election against Penny Mordaunt. Whatever either of these…
The pressure mounts on the PM It really is very hard to see how Truss survives following the latest moves by her Chancellor to eradicate almost completely the changes announced in the budget. By far and away the biggest priority for her government now is to win back the confidence of the markets and if that means Truss being humiliated then so bet it. Her budget changes articulated by her then Chancellor have been a disaster. She completely over-stated the…
What an awful set of front pages this morning for the Prime Minister with even the most loyal newspapers not being supportive. The Tory party rules might say that a new leader has a year before she can face a leadership challenge but for many MPs the prospect of them continuing in the role after a general election looks very thin indeed. The sea change in public opinion since that first budget has been absolutely massive. If the polls are…
This polling was carried out before Liz Truss decided to turn Kwasi Kwarteng’s tenure as Chancellor as a tribute to the Anglo-Zanzibar war but I suspect the appointment of Jeremy Hunt will do little to help this type of polling in the short term. The Tory raison d’être is that we might be bastards but we know how to run an economy, if they aren’t seen competent on the economy then they are on course for a defeat that could…