This betting opportunity from Smarkets is worth looking at, the market is about a Tory MP defecting to Labour by the end of the year, my hunch is plenty of you will fancy a seven per cent return in just over two months. I wonder if the value is with yes, the grim reality for Tory MPs is that the smallest Labour lead this month is a mere 16%, if you want to save your career the best option is…
This story is genuinely jaw dropping Liz Truss’s personal phone was hacked for top-secret information by suspected Russian agents, according to the Mail on Sunday. The attackers are said to have gained access to details of negotiations with international allies, as well as private messages exchanged with her close friend Kwasi Kwarteng. The hack was uncovered during the Tory leadership campaign this summer, while Ms Truss was foreign secretary but the details were suppressed by then prime minister Boris Johnson and Simon…
An attack on the spouse of the 2nd in line to the White House is not trivial I sometimes despair at what has happened to American politics since Trump won the election in 2016. To try to trivialise the attack on the husband of Nancy Pelosi in this way is beyond the pale especially as it took place only a week and a half before the MidTerms on November 8th. Fox News should be ashamed because it is almost as…
Ipsos aren’t the only pollsters to find support/opinions on Brexit being very low. I take the view that people saying Brexit is going badly/viewed negatively is not synonymous with rejoining however I recall a conversation I had with a Brexiteer in the run up to the referendum who took the view that if the UK voted to Leave and the country ultimately decided Brexit was a mistake they would vote to overturn it. Unless something fundamentally changes I suspect support/approval…
Will Boris Johnson backing Tory MPs take notice of this polling? Rishi Sunak must see the polling showing that 69% of voters thinking Boris Johnson will not becoming back and think nice, that’s a bad position for Boris Johnson to find himself in. The striking numbers are just how many Tory voters do not want and don’t expect Boris Johnson to return. There’s a reason why his polling was closer to Jeremy Corbyn’s polling in December 2019. TSE
In 1872, Mr Benjamin Disraeli (as he then was) made one of his famous savage attacks on the Liberal Party. In it, he famously characterised Gladstone’s cabinet as ‘a range of exhausted volcanoes.’ What did he mean by this? Well, he meant that all the fire and vigour had been expended and now there was nothing left but a large lump of useless rock. It was an expression that resonated very much in the country at large, given the amount…
This betting opportunity from Smarkets on a by election in Boris Johnson’s seat is intriguing. This isn’t a bet on the outcome of such a by election but whether there will be one. This could be a winner in a variety of ways, inter alia, Boris Johnson willingly stands down to earn money without having to declare it to the parliamentary authorities. Boris Johnson willingly stands down because Sunak turns things around for the Tories and there’s no desire for…
Looking at this market from William Hill on the next cabinet member to leave I can understand why the disgraced national security risk Suella Braverman is the favourite but my money and value is on Ben Wallace at 25/1. With a brutal round of spending cuts due in the next few weeks then I wonder if the Chancellor, with Sunak’s implicit backing, cuts defence spending or fails to raise it to the 3% GDP target. The harsh reality is that…